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MAGA Civil War Erupts Over Iran | Pivot

Kara and Scott unpack Trump lashing out at U.S. allies over Iran, rising oil prices, and the Pentagon's new spending request. Then, Fed Chair Jerome Powell says he'll stay on as Fed Chair until his successor is in place, while Bob Iger passes the Disney CEO baton (again). Plus, Meta’s metaverse future, OpenAI refocusing, and Kalshi facing criminal charges. #pivot #podcast #karaswisher #scottgalloway #fed #jeromepowell #iran #pentagon #bobiger #disney #meta #metaverse #openai #kalshi 00:00 Intro 9:39 Trump Rebuffed by Allies 15:56 Powell Staying Put 22:29 Meta’s Metaverse Future 31:57 OpenAI to Focus on Core Business 35:56 Iger Passes Disney CEO Baton 47:36 Kalshi Faces Charges 56:30 Rivian/Uber Deal 1:05:32 Predictions Producers: Lara Naaman Zoë Marcus Taylor Griffin Video Producer: Manolo Moreno Vox Media's Executive Producer of Podcasts: Nishat Kurwa Subscribe to Pivot on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pivot/id1073226719 Subscribe to Pivot on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4MU3RFGELZxPT9XHVwTNPR Follow us on Instagram and Threads at: https://www.instagram.com/pivotpodcastofficial/ Follow us on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@PIVOTPODCAST Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or email pivot@voxmedia.com

Kara SwisherhostScott Gallowayhost
Mar 20, 20261h 14mWatch on YouTube ↗

EVERY SPOKEN WORD

  1. 0:009:39

    Intro

    1. KS

      I predict this MAGA micropenis war is gonna get worse, and I am here for it. [upbeat music] Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher.

    2. SG

      And I'm Scott Galloway.

    3. KS

      Scott, have you recovered from South by Southwest and your partying?

    4. SG

      I'm still basking in the glow. I thought it was great.

    5. KS

      [chuckles] It was good. Yeah, I had a good time in the end. It was really fun. Um, what was your favorite highlight of it?

    6. SG

      My favorite highlight, um-

    7. KS

      Besides our time together

    8. SG

      ... the way Representative Talarico described masculinity.

    9. KS

      Yeah.

    10. SG

      And he talks about his father, I guess, used to come home on Sunday and immediately change and then mow their lawn, and then without ever talking about it, just went next door and mowed the lawn of this old lady's and, and I thought, and, and he described that-

    11. KS

      Yeah, that really struck you. You mentioned it at the show, that why... Did you, did, did you ever mow people's lawns, Scott?

    12. SG

      I used to mow lawns for money, but I, I didn't do it. [chuckles] I showed up to the house before I mowed a lawn and said, "Hey, seven bucks in Ohio-"

    13. KS

      Yeah.

    14. SG

      "... and I'll mow your lawn."

    15. KS

      Oh, wow. Okay.

    16. SG

      And I had a manual lawnmower, and I was all of about 120 pounds pushing a manual lawnmower around.

    17. KS

      So you, you were not taught to mow people's lawns?

    18. SG

      No, I was taught to make money. I w- my dad was like, "Go make money." [chuckles] My, my son got a, um, a job at a taco truck last summer.

    19. KS

      Uh-huh. Uh-huh.

    20. SG

      It was so good for him.

    21. KS

      Yeah.

    22. SG

      Um, you know, so many... Anyways, I, I think, uh, chores, chores, jobs, and sports, I mean, anyways, and, uh-

    23. KS

      Anyways, well, the reason I'm asking is 'cause it's introspection, and when your introspection is-

    24. SG

      Oh, I've got, I, I've gotten much more introspective just-

    25. KS

      Yeah

    26. SG

      ... to today, I'm here in Tulum, and I've had some time to-

    27. KS

      Mm-hmm

    28. SG

      ... really contemplate, and I've decided that I, I-- it's time for me at this age, Kara.

    29. KS

      Yeah.

    30. SG

      It's time for me. Life is finite. It's time for me to start, to start living my dreams, so I'm gonna start showing up for tests I'm not prepared for naked.

  2. 9:3915:56

    Trump Rebuffed by Allies

    1. KS

      of oil is over nine-hundred and nineteen dollars a barrel at one point following attacks on energy sites in the Gulf. President Trump has been lashing out at U.S. allies this week, demanding they send warships to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. Uh, the r-response has been, quote, "global raspberry," as one analyst put it. We're seeing also the first resignation over this war. Counterterrorism official Joe Kent stepped down, saying Iran posed no imminent threat. Of course, he went on Tucker Carlson. His-- He's of that ilk. He has some, he has some problems himself, but nonetheless, he quickly went on Tucker Carlson to discuss his departure 'cause this is like the train, the right-wing MAGA train, uh, if you're going in one direction. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is asking the White House to approve two hundred billion dollar request for Congress to fund the Iran war. I think of an entire-- I think Joe Biden was one hundred and eighty billion for like years-long wars or whatever. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth just said in a briefing that a number could move because it takes money to kill bad guys. Speaking of introspection, what an idiot. Um, uh, the next move, what happens here? Trump also said this week, by the way, that a former president told him he regretted not bombing them, but all the former living presidents denied saying that, so I guess he's talking to himself. I mean, they've denied it. Like, he's such a liar. It's astonishing, like, what this guy does. Um, obviously either cognitive or just a liar. I'm not sure. Where do you think-- What, what do you think is happening here now? Let's have a quick update.

    2. SG

      Well, I mean, the mother of all understatements is it's complicated. Look, uh, I think the fatal flaw of the Trump administration is they don't recognize our power as a species and as a country, and that is, as powerful as we are, we're only a third of the world's GDP. But because we were seen as the good guys and innovators, and that we did embrace this notion that if we can make you wealthier and more peaceful, ultimately that wealth and peace will return home in the form of you buying our trucks and being our ally, and we can put a military base there. And the operating system of sixty or seventy percent of the world was U.S. laws, military, flows of energy, general rule of law, even democracies, even laws and justice systems were based off the U.S. model, and to, to a lesser extent, the British model. It just got evolved. We were sort of two point O. And he's decided, no, with thirty percent, I can go at it alone, and what he's found is all of a sudden, he's one-third versus two-thirds, and this is just... When my-- We, you know, we warn my son not to take grapefruit juice into the, to the living room with the brand-new couch, and he tells us, "Don't be an idiot. I can handle it." And then he screams, "Dad, I need help," and I know exactly what's happened. It's just-

    3. KS

      Yeah, you spill the grapefruit juice

    4. SG

      ... well, what do you know? We're gonna-- I'm gonna do this unilaterally. I'm not gonna go to the UN. I mean, talk--The Gulf One, George Bush put to- together a coalition of, I think, thirty-one countries. He got UN authorization, and he got the allies to pay sixty-two of the seventy, seventy billion dollars in cost. That war cost us-

    5. KS

      And at great, and at great sacrifice for many of them. And of course, he's been downplaying their sacrifice, and they're now like literally saying, "No, and by the way, and if you get... come out of NATO, fine." Like they're now at that point of, you know, like whatever.

    6. SG

      He asked, he asked China for help, and by the way

    7. KS

      I know

    8. SG

      ... China's ships are flowing through. So the notion that he's going to, quote unquote, "an enemy or a nemesis," going to people he's been really rude to, I mean, this is just... And they didn't anticipate that they w- wouldn't be able to count on their allies. I, I, I, I just-

    9. KS

      Didn't anticipate the Iran pushback, the strength of the... I mean, he was advised by, by the way, pretty much stories coming out now are like, "He was told this. He was told this. He was told they would do this. They would close the Strait of Hormuz." Like everyone's leaking-

    10. SG

      Yeah

    11. KS

      ... their, the shit out of things, which is really... I mean, what's interesting, the, I, I know it's the smallest part of it, but the lie about presidents was weird, was just weird. Like, why would you say that? And then they all say no, and it looks like he's, uh, it's a lie or he's talking to himself or whatever. It- the whole thing seems... Like lies come out of his mouth every day now that are easily checkable, like easily checkable lies, and that don't really work. And so something's going on. Something's happening in a way that's... I mean, I don't want to give him an excuse. Maybe he's just a malevolent prick, but it seems problematic that he's leading this coalition of the one.

    12. SG

      When you hire incompetent conspiracy theorists, which is what-

    13. KS

      Mm-hmm

    14. SG

      ... Joe Kent is.

    15. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    16. SG

      I mean, this is very upsetting for me as someone, you know, quite frankly, as a Jew, and that is-

    17. KS

      Mm-hmm. Yeah, he seems a little-

    18. SG

      ... he immediately said that, that basically the largest military in the world, in the United States, is being manipulated by Jews.

    19. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    20. SG

      And this just plays into a very anti-Semitic trope being fomented on the far right.

    21. KS

      Yes.

    22. SG

      And I don't, I don't doubt-

    23. KS

      Rogin, Megyn Kelly, there's a bunch of them, right? There's-

    24. SG

      Yeah, that this is all be- this is all Jews' fault.

    25. KS

      Yeah.

    26. SG

      That is just-

    27. KS

      That's all they were doing

    28. SG

      ... that's not helpful.

    29. KS

      No.

    30. SG

      So, uh, and-

  3. 15:5622:29

    Powell Staying Put

    1. KS

      which, Jerome Powell says he'll stay on his Fed chair until his successor is confirmed by the Senate, even if that's after his term e- expires. He has every right to. It could be a while. The Senate hasn't even scheduled a hearing for Trump's nominee, Kevin Warsh. GOP Senator Thom Tillis, who I'm talking to, uh, next week, says he won't vote on confirmation until the DOJ investigation on Powell is over. They've, they've been handed some, um, uh, court things, Jeanine Pirro and the rest, a- around Powell, uh, for his part, and they're appealing it, I think. For his part, Powell also says he'll stay on as Fed governor, which I said he would. Remember I said this? Until the investigation is well and truly over. Um, this is ex- I thought he would do this. He looks like he, he ran out of fucks a long time ago. Um, and well and truly over means he could stay, uh, as long as he... He has a while there on that Fed governor thing, and he'll have, as you noted many times, enormous influence. So he's the... This is the opposite of what Trump wanted, and he stuck with Powell, and Tillis, I can tell you, is not give... I mean, is not stopping at all, at all. So-

    2. SG

      I, I think if it had been a different president who'd demonstrated more grace to him, I don't doubt he would've stepped down. Or if he'd said to him, "Listen, I want you to be my chief economic advisor, I, I, you know, I have a m- even something more important for you." But keep in mind, as long as Jerome Powell is in the room, I've said this, there's, there's how you think, there's the governance structure, and then there's actually how boards and body politic works, and this is how... This is essentially a board of directors. This is how they work. There's a bunch of them. In every board, there's 12 people.

    3. KS

      Mm-hmm. You said it.

    4. SG

      And there's two people who matter.

    5. KS

      Yeah. And Powell is it.

    6. SG

      There's the largest shareholder, which d- doesn't, doesn't, doesn't, uh, apply here, and then there's someone who's so fucking smart that everyone, they don't speak a lot, they listen a lot, but when they speak, everyone has a tendency to nod their head. And that... Tell me the, whatever it is, the ele- other 11 governors are gonna v- when, when Jerome Powell says, you know, whatever. The, the chair is the person who, who-

    7. KS

      Well, he's gonna run it. I don't think... I think Tillis isn't giv- I, I, I know Tillis isn't giving up. He said it. He's like, he... Tillis now suddenly, as you said, found his balls, and he's like, "Mm, no, I'm gonna do the right thing for..." He, he's very offended by the Jerome Powell thing. I know that. And so I think it's... He's a business person. He's a really well-rec- He had a... You know, he was aEven though, you know, he sounds like he's like from the country

    8. SG

      He's qualified. He's a smart guy

    9. KS

      ... very smart guy, is very stuck on this. Powell not putting, uh, Warsh through. Um, obviously he helped take down, uh, Christine Ohm. Um, I think there's, there's such a pushback, not just from our allies abroad, but here. And if you're someone like Tom Tillison can stop this, y- you do it. Like why not? What's, what's the negative for him? There's nothing. Because he's now, because Trump tri- pushed him out essentially of the Senate, and now he's in enormous position of power and, and influence, the same thing. And so Powell is, Powell is not gonna bring rates down, by the way, especially with inflation up. So Trump has gotten the opposite of everything he wanted, so.

    10. SG

      No, Kalshi said there was a 99% likelihood they would not cut rates. But where I was headed was, I would bet 98% of the decisions in the Fed from the Board of Governors, regardless of who's in charge, regardless of who takes the mic, uh, the new chair, whatever Jerome Powell said was probably the right move in that meeting is what they're gonna do.

    11. KS

      Yeah. Yeah. And that's what they're gonna do.

    12. SG

      This is a guy that had a Mary Lou Retton like stick the landing of the economy where he-

    13. KS

      Uh-huh

    14. SG

      ... basically tamed inflation by 600 basis points while not going into recession. Like no one-

    15. KS

      Yeah

    16. SG

      ... in economics-

    17. KS

      No

    18. SG

      ... you know, uh, uh, and I-

    19. KS

      I think Warsh is perfectly qualified, but Trump now has Jerome Powell forever. Like, especially the, the dumb attack-

    20. SG

      I think another, another six or 12 years or something, or whatever. Basically until Powell dies

    21. KS

      ... on his construct. And also he's gonna stay there as the, as the head of it. It's just, anyway, uh, it's, it's-

    22. SG

      Good for him. I-

    23. KS

      Good for him. I love it

    24. SG

      ... I think, I think he is, I think he is lit- And the, the first-

    25. KS

      He's a hero

    26. SG

      ... the first Medal of Freedom recipient.

    27. KS

      Yeah, he's a hero.

    28. SG

      One, Democrats love to show that they're bipartisan. It'll probably be Vice President Spence will be first, the first one, and the second one will be Jerome Powell.

    29. KS

      Vice President Spence, who's Vice? Oh.

    30. SG

      Um, Pence, I'm sorry. Pence.

  4. 22:2931:57

    Meta’s Metaverse Future

    1. KS

      and Meta is [laughs] shutting down its VR metaverse on June 15th. And the legless people are gone. The VR social network Horizon Worlds never drew more than a couple, uh, 100,000 active users a month. I mean, I think, I think it was like 1,000 were using it by the end. Some users reported the daily active users actually dropped to under 1,000. Who are those people? I wanna meet those people. Over 70 billion was spent on the project over time. Uh, you have talked about this for a long time. I never liked the metaverse.

    2. SG

      So some breaking news that broke after the recording, Kara. We just learned that Meta is not shutting down VR support for Horizon Worlds. That's according to an Instagram post from Meta CTO Andrew Bosworth. He said there was, uh, open quote, "A lot of misinformation about the company's plans. We announced, 'Hey, we're moving away from Horizon Worlds and VR,' and the headline is that Horizon is dead." He said, "It's not, and likewise, VR is not dead. We're continuing to invest tremendously." Uh, this is weak sauce. We fucked up. Nana is on life support, and despite the fact she might have brainwaves, we're pulling the plug soon. This is, in my view, an attempt to, uh, backtrack and not totally freak out the remaining employees before they find them another job or lay them off. This is, this is dead, uh, in my view, and, uh, you know, uh, in, in attempt to, if you will say, "No, there's still hope" when they believe, uh, a- and every indication here is that, uh, this thing is maybe in hospice, but be clear, i- it's, it's on the green mile. All right, enough of that, let's move on.

    3. KS

      While the press was fawning over the idea, you were not impressed. Let's take a look at what you've said over the years.

    4. SG

      I was the original hater of headsets and metaverse.

    5. SP

      Web 3.0, the metaverse, it's supposed to be the next dimension of the internet.

    6. SG

      I just love the fact that Mark Zuckerberg is, is showing up with literally the biggest fucking thud in history.

    7. SP

      I am proud to announce that starting today, our company is now Meta

    8. SG

      I think this thing is already a giant flaming bag of shit. If it was working, they'd be putting out all sorts of numbers and press releases about people signing up

    9. SP

      You know, by the end of the decade, we hope to basically get to around a billion people in the metaverse doing hundreds of, of dollars of commerce each.

    10. SG

      If I were to try and devise a strategy to weaken the corpus that is Facebook, I would invent this distraction called the metaverse, and specifically the Oculus, to pour billions of dollars down a sinkhole.

    11. SP

      They pivoted their entire company to the metaverse.

    12. SG

      I think, I mean, if I had tried to figure out a way to kneecap Meta, which is a net negative for society, I couldn't have come up with a strategy as brilliant as this.

    13. KS

      Nice call, Scott. Let me just say that. Second of all, I didn't like Meta because the legless, it was weird. Remember when he introduced it, it was so weird and awkward a-at the time. Um, one of the things that's astonishing here is that he could have this much of a loss and still, th-th-they're doing so well elsewhere, um, that this seventy billion dollar loss doesn't matter, and he's fetid, while other people who have losses get slapped back to... But this is such a failure. Please, please take a lap and conclude this chapter of Mark Zuckerberg's life for us.

    14. SG

      Kara, the fact that seventy billion dollars in CapEx got taken into a street and burned and that people didn't wanna live in a legless future where they didn't wanna be in a place where forty percent of them were within twenty minutes nauseous, or that they further separate from human-- I'm shocked, Kara. I'm shocked this didn't work.

    15. KS

      [laughs]

    16. SG

      I, I had big hopes for it, because anything Mark Zuckerberg is clearly right.

    17. KS

      [sighs]

    18. SG

      Uh, I-- The scariest thing, I think the scariest thing about our economy, other than the income inequality, is the fact that we have now tied the fate of the S&P in the ten percent wealthiest households who control the economy now and government. We've tied it to our ability to evolve a new species of asocial, asexual males and some females. And, and the thing is, this is, this is a healthy gag reflex from mammals. One, on a very instinctive level, it's very uncomfortable, especially for women, [clears throat] but for everybody, when you're walking on the sidewalk alone and you hear footsteps behind you-

    19. KS

      Yes, it is

    20. SG

      ... or inside you. Because the things you can eat and the things that can eat you don't come straight at you. They have a habit of coming from behind you or from the side.

    21. KS

      Mm-hmm. Mm.

    22. SG

      And so your peripheral vision, and the reason why billboards on the highway are still a big business, is you notice shit in your peripheral vision.

    23. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    24. SG

      You're very subconsciously conscious of what's in your peripheral vision or what isn't.

    25. KS

      Hmm.

    26. SG

      And when it's blocked with a headset, you feel uncomfortable.

    27. KS

      Yeah.

    28. SG

      So, uh, uh, uh, no, they never spoke to an anthropologist to say, "All right, what happens wh-when we invent a technology that from the moment they turn it on," it's like if you turned on your PC and it made you feel slightly nauseous-

    29. KS

      Yeah, no, all those

    30. SG

      ... just by turning it on.

  5. 31:5735:56

    OpenAI to Focus on Core Business

    1. KS

      OpenAI is scaling back on projects and focusing on coding and business, uh, users. Pressure for the change comes from competitors like Anthropic, which you and I have been talking about dominating the business AI market. Employees also felt the companies do everything strategy led to a lack of focus. Speaking of which, uh, OpenAI delayed the launch of the adult mode, which would allow sexual explicit conversations due to concerns from adv-advisors over mental health risks. You think? Also of concern, an age prediction system that has been misclassifying minors as adults twelve percent of the time. The feature, which the company still plans to release eventually, would be text only. Um, this is all the influence of Fidji, uh, Simo, uh, who is the, um, is, is the new top executive there. The-- very similar when Eric Schmidt came to Google. They, they were sort of chaotic and did everything, the two founders, Larry and Sergey, um, and then they brought, uh, Eric in to really clean it up. Seems sort of basic, this, you know, this, this executive, but they do have done-- made like a million stupid announcements, and it does remind one of Google in that regard. Thoughts?

    2. SG

      You're exactly right. It's... Remember when Google was doing shit like trying to cure death, and then... I, I feel like Eric brought in managerial competence in how to scale an organization, but Ruth Porat showed up and said, "All right, mom is home."

    3. KS

      That's enough. Yeah.

    4. SG

      "Fun time's over."

    5. KS

      Stall them.

    6. SG

      "The dog's pregnant, and the garage is on fire. I'm in charge now."

    7. KS

      Yeah.

    8. SG

      A-and this is the right move for OpenAI, and that is, uh... And by the way, and this will go to my prediction, Anthropic is now worth more than OpenAI. I don't care what the last mark is on a preferred funding, but A-A-Anthropic has surged to nineteen billion in a- annual recurring revenue up from fourteen billion just a couple weeks ago. Six billion in ARR was added just in February. OpenAI ARR was twenty billion at the end of twenty twenty-five. And here's the key. It's all about the enterprise, 'cause they're the only ones that are willing to make these huge investments. And enter-- And get this, Kara. Anthropic's enterprise market share has increased to thirty-two percent, surpassing OpenAI's twenty-five percent. And since twenty twenty-three, enterprise AI revenue has exploded from one point seven billion-

    9. KS

      Mm-hmm

    10. SG

      ... to thirty-seven billion.

    11. KS

      Yeah, they've gotta be... The OpenAI's really-

    12. SG

      And then the other-

    13. KS

      ... messed this up

    14. SG

      ... the other, the other staggering statistic here-

    15. KS

      Mm

    16. SG

      ... that is why OpenAI is focusing, which is the right thing to do-

    17. KS

      Mm-hmm

    18. SG

      ... is Anthropic is now capturing three out of four new spending in enterprise AI.

    19. KS

      Yeah.

    20. SG

      So they're getting seventy-three percent of all spending among companies buying AI tools for the first time.

    21. KS

      Yeah.

    22. SG

      And ten weeks ago, the split with OpenAI was fifty-fifty. So get this. Uh, uh, get this, Pete.

    23. KS

      Thank you, Pete Hagseth. [chuckles]

    24. SG

      It was sixty-forty in OpenAI's-

    25. KS

      Yeah

    26. SG

      ... favor as recently as early December from... So from December to now, it's gone from sixty-forty to twenty-- to twenty-seven seventy-three.

    27. KS

      Yeah.

    28. SG

      So they are, they are literally losing the enterprise market.

    29. KS

      Yeah.

    30. SG

      Uh-

  6. 35:5647:36

    Iger Passes Disney CEO Baton

    1. KS

      step down as, uh, [chuckles] Disney CEO again. Iger passed the baton to his successor, Josh D'Amaro, at Disney's annual shareholder meeting this week. D'Amaro, a twenty-eight-year-old veteran of the company, was most recently head of Disney Experiences, which includes parks, cruises, and resorts. Iger is set to stay on as an advisor and board member until the end of twenty twenty-six. Not very long. It's unclear what he'll do after that. Before-- The last time he left, he did a bunch of advising and sailing around on a boat in the South Seas. Um, uh, I... Last time he retired, which I said he wasn't gonna stay retired, I asked him whether he planned to get into politics. Let's listen to what he told me in twenty twenty-two. [whooshing] Would you ever run for office?

    2. SG

      [chuckles] Uh, I'm not planning to run for office.

    3. KS

      That's-- Is that a no?

    4. SG

      That's just what I said. I'm not playing with you

    5. KS

      Okay. All right, fine. I think you are. Um, so last thing, um, [laughs] you should. I- I think you should-

    6. SG

      Why? Why, why do you say that?

    7. KS

      I usually do not tell another white guy, "Oh, please run for office. We don't have enough of you," but I think you would be an excellent pol- [laughs] 'cause I think you'd be an excellent politician, 'cause I don't think you give a fuck. Uh, anyway, I don't think he's gonna run for office, actually. I, I don't... I can't imagine he's gonna do that. Um, but what do you think his next act will, will be? Uh, I mean, he certainly had his ups and downs, and the stock has not reflected much of it, although I do think he did a lot around digital. I think he did a lot around streaming. Um, I think he was a, a very good CEO for much of his tenure and not so good in other things. I think probably the Fox purchase is one people point to as being problematic, but in general, pretty good tenure, um, especially around streaming. I, I think that he made those moves. Um, what do you think his next act should be?

    8. SG

      Hit the golf course and enjoy his life, and I, I-

    9. KS

      He won't do that

    10. SG

      ... would call challenge on his tenure, Kara, because-

    11. KS

      Okay

    12. SG

      ... the last 10 years have been the most prosperous in the history of the world for American companies-

    13. KS

      Mm-hmm

    14. SG

      ... and his stock is below where it was 10 years ago.

    15. KS

      It is.

    16. SG

      And at the end of the day, as the CEO-

    17. KS

      That's your, what you're judged by

    18. SG

      ... you're evaluated. That's your kind of metrics one, two, and three. He, quite frankly, he really fucked up. He's the guy who went to Vietnam, completed his tour honorably, came home with medals pinned to his chest. He could be a viable candidate for the Democratic nomination right now, but he's more... He looks less like Mark Cuban and more like Sheryl Sandberg.

    19. KS

      Mm. Interesting.

    20. SG

      And that is his second tenure. First off, he was heckling from the cheap seats. He left and never really left the room, but convinced the board, as far as I can tell, to fire the new guy and put me back in like some returning hero, and he has had huge winds in his face. But d- Disney has become... Disney has gone from being probably the most iconic company in the creative community. To a certain extent, it represents what's happened to the creative community, and that is distinct of how incredible it is and their great IP and their great creativity. It's been bad for shareholders, and it's probably been a difficult place to work the last 10 years. And he did, he did make a lot of the right moves. He launched a streaming network. He invested in the parks. But at the end of the day, his last 10 years, there was a, there was never a clear succession path. He started to feel a little bit like, I forget the name of that guy at Citicru- Citigroup, that anytime someone got near him, got shot in the head. So he leaves. He, he's very likable. He's very smooth. Had he stayed away and then just let someone else run with it, I think he'd probably be a cabinet member, maybe even by, you know, in the next administration at a minimum. Now he's, now he's the guy that, quite frankly, took Disney... Uh, he, he, uh, uh-

    21. KS

      He didn't take the stock anywhere. I get that. I, I understand. I think doing the streaming stuff was critical to its future, and he definitely pushed that through. Like, I, I was there watching. I mean, he made a number of dumb digital moves over the years. They kept changing Disney Buena Vista in twenty... I mean, I was thr- I wrote stories on every one of them. And but I do think directionally, very few people leaned into digital and streaming the way he did, right? And I think he-

    22. SG

      Oh, I don't know. I would argue Netflix leaned in a lot. [laughs]

    23. KS

      Well, Netflix, of course. No, no. Yes. No. They should've bought Netflix when they had the chance, and they, everybody had the chance at one point. But yeah, you're right. Netflix was in the, in the right position. But you are dragging around a legacy organization make, makes it very hard.

    24. SG

      Well, a legacy organization that had the world's best IP. I mean-

    25. KS

      Yes

    26. SG

      ... Netflix, uh, so, okay. So Disney, in the last 10 years, has market returns of, of zero, and Netflix is up four... No, I'm sorry. It's up 600%. Uh-

    27. KS

      Yeah. Yep. I, I get it

    28. SG

      ... and granted, the other studios have not fared any better.

    29. KS

      Right.

    30. SG

      But, uh, with that IP, with the parks for cash flow, yeah. Look, uh, B- Bob, what's the lesson here? The lesson is the following, and I think about this a lot.

  7. 47:3656:30

    Kalshi Faces Charges

    1. KS

      we're back with more news. Kalshi is facing criminal charges in Arizona, where prosecutors say the prediction market platform illegally let people bet without a gambling license. Kalshi says the charges are meritless and said they should be regulated federally rather than by individual states. The case is the first criminal prosecution against a prediction market company. It's more to come. I actually, when I was at South by South, met, met with the California attorney general, who today, um, did a, a lawsuit, uh, one of the lawsuits against the Nexstar, um, the Nexstar, whatever that ridiculous merger was. Um, in any case, this is... The, the states have been regulating gambling for year, like forever, for decades, so it's not meritless. Um, so what do, what do you think does this? Because what was interesting, another story popped up which I found fascinating. The Times of Israel reporter received death threats from gamblers on Polymarket after reporting an Iranian missile strike that affected a high-stakes prediction market bet. Some bettors tried to pressure him to change the story so their market would resolve in their favor. And let me just say, it feel, this is a topic people are really interested in. I'll read an email from one of our listeners. "I'm a journalist and a fan of the show. I don't understand why I'm hearing Kalshi percentages cited during the show as evidence of anything. It's people guessing. I think it's more harmful than helpful." That's you doing it, Scott. I don't do that. I, I agree with you. Um, what do you think about these markets shifting from predicting events to actively influencing them in certain, given the gaming part, the easily gamed, uh, unregulated bad actors? It is gambling, um, and gambling is very well-regulated. So what do you think about that?

    2. SG

      I think there's some truth to all of that. I, I-- This is one of those things I'm hugely conflicted by because I am absolutely fascinated with the data. Uh, where I would push back on the listener is, oh no, this data is incredibly insightful. Uh, the wisdom-- This is the wisdom of crowds. This is-- This does illuminate... Whenever I'm looking at political races, whenever I'm looking at interest rate movements, I go to, I go to Kalshi.

    3. KS

      You don't think it's a trailing indicator? You don't think it's a trailing indicator.

    4. SG

      It's pretty much up to date. And the thing about-

    5. KS

      Yeah

    6. SG

      ... money and the thing about looking at... Typically, the people who did this stuff were, were academics, economists, or an investment banking analyst.

    7. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    8. SG

      All of them are conflicted. All of them want to catastrophize because it makes us look smarter. All of us have third-party influences. Nothing is more amoral and pure than money. It just-- When someone bets on something, it really shows you what they really think is gonna happen. And if you look at... It's, it, these comp- these speculative markets, speculation markets, or prediction markets have essentially put pollsters, and to a certain extent, investment banking analysts out of work because guess what? They're much-

    9. KS

      Kind of. I, I would push back on that. I just met with a bunch of pollsters on this topic, but go ahead.

    10. SG

      Oh, they're, uh, in my opinion, they're done. They-- If you look at, if you look at, if you look at the prediction markets record versus pollsters in the last election, the prediction markets kicked their ass. Absolutely. I love the data. I am swimming in the data. It's one of the first things I do before I get on a show, is I look at, I look at Kalshi data. Kal- Uh, uh, I'm, I'm totally conflicted because at the same time-

    11. KS

      Mm-hmm

    12. SG

      ... there's a really good argument that this is just gambling. Now, what-

    13. KS

      Mm-hmm

    14. SG

      ... what's happening is they're being charged with four counts of election wagering.

    15. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    16. SG

      Um, is, it, the d- the debate is over the fundamental des- definition of gambling versus event contracts. And Arizona charges claim that putting money on a contingent future event or occurrence is illegal. But at the same time, Kara, if that's true, then traditional options would be illegal. And that here's the problem or the issue. Gambling and tapping into a prefrontal cortex, an immature prefrontal cortex that is dopa hungry and susceptible, uh, in some ways, there's just no getting around it. It feels predatory and unhealthy. So what do you do? Do you infantilize? I think Kalshi is trying to be the, the clean, the cleanest, best lit place of this. They're not doing contracts on things like war.

    17. KS

      Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

    18. SG

      Whereas Polymarket is off- offshore, and Kalshi-

    19. KS

      Yeah

    20. SG

      ... is trying to get licensed by the same people who license the options exchange. But I, I wanna hear what you think.

    21. KS

      I think it, I think it's-

    22. SG

      I have no more clarity around this

    23. KS

      ... I think the states have been regulating gambling forever. So I think that's nonsense, that they sh-- if this, if gambling is going on, they need to... It's, it reminds me of this-

    24. SG

      But they're approving it. They're approving it everywhere.

    25. KS

      P-approving it in different places.

    26. SG

      States have been approving gambling a-all over the place.

    27. KS

      They are, but so they need to be regulated in the same way. Like, it's, it's my thing-

    28. SG

      Right

    29. KS

      ... with everything. It's like if OpenAI is giving legal, medical, or psychological advice, they need to be, uh, subject to the same rules people are, right? The s- the same... Everybody-- Like, I, I was in Vegas for a second. I have to tell you, you're absolutely right. It's dead. Vegas is dead. Like, I mean, I was-

    30. SG

      You don't need to be in Vegas. Vegas is in your pocket now.

  8. 56:301:05:32

    Rivian/Uber Deal

    1. KS

      plans to invest $1.2 billion in Rivian as part of a deal to deploy 50,000 robotaxis. I recently spoke with, uh, Rivian founder and CEO RJ Scaringe on, on With Kara Swisher. I also saw him, uh, for an extended amount of time at South by Southwest. Let's listen to a clip where he talked about self-driving.

    2. SG

      If you're a customer, and you have a choice of I can buy a car for 35, $40,000, and it can, you know, drop me at the airport, it can go to the grocery store to pick up, up, you know, stuff for me, it can drop a friend at a house, it can do all those things, or a car that doesn't do that, it's, it's gonna be very binary, right? I think there'll be very few people that will self-select to say, "I don't want those features." Even folks who are not comfortable with the idea of self-driving, once you experience it one or two times-

    3. KS

      It does

    4. SG

      ... it's, it's-

    5. KS

      I try to say that to everybody

    6. SG

      ... it's so sticky.

    7. KS

      Yeah.

    8. SG

      'Cause you get your time back. Suddenly, you can be reading a book on your phone.

    9. KS

      Yeah.

    10. SG

      It's, it's just so sticky.

    11. KS

      I... But my one, uh-

    12. SG

      And so I think that is like the-

    13. KS

      My one way of convincing one person I'm li- who likes to party, I'm like, "You can, you can text and drink."

    14. SG

      [laughs]

    15. KS

      I don't know what to say.

    16. SG

      I know.

    17. KS

      There's my...

    18. SG

      There you go.

    19. KS

      That's my sale for you. I think that was you I was talking about. Um, uh, it was really... It was super interesting. I think it's a real blow again to Tesla. Um, I, and I, I, I drove the Rivian 2 at, um, South by Southwest. I also... They have a really nifty bike called Also, which I liked a lot. Um, I really like the Rivian. I, I think he's interesting. I think he's a great spokesperson for this stuff. Um, and they're wonderful. It's a wonderful... I may buy one. I may buy an R2, um, 'cause I was super impressed with it. Um, in any case, it's a really interesting, um, move by Uber, who needs to get into this business, and, uh, and, uh, and it's a good thing for Rivian, who, you know, it's a tough struggle to get these cars, to get a car company going. Um, your thoughts on Rivian?

    20. SG

      I, I think it's a win-win. I, I think it's... Uh, Rivian is subscale. Automobile platforms cost so many billions to produce. I think Rivian has done as good a job as anyone. I'm moving... When I move back to the US, I'm gonna... If I buy a car, and I've really enjoyed not having a car for four years, I'm probably gonna buy a Rivian.

    21. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    22. SG

      I, I-

    23. KS

      The 2 is nice. It's smaller.

    24. SG

      I was one of those people to put 5,000 bucks down on it, like-

    25. KS

      Mm-hmm

    26. SG

      ... five, six years ago and never took delivery of it. Probably I should-

    27. KS

      Mm-hmm

    28. SG

      ... look into that.

    29. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    30. SG

      Um, new Kalshi market. What's the likelihood-

  9. 1:05:321:14:14

    Predictions

    1. KS

      let's hear a prediction. Can I just start very quickly?

    2. SG

      Of course.

    3. KS

      I predict this MAGA micropenis war is gonna get worse, and I am here for it. You know about this, right? Megyn Kelly said Mark Levin had a micropenis, and then President Trump defended his micropenis, and then Marjorie Taylor Greene came in with a micropenis. And Megyn Kelly's doubling down on it. It's completely crude and awful and repulsive, and I think it's gonna get a lot worse, and I'm very pleased. Thank you.

    4. SG

      Yeah.

    5. KS

      That's my prediction.

    6. SG

      You know, I, I, I don't, I don't... I think it's inappropriate to talk about men's genitalia, Kara.

    7. KS

      [laughs]

    8. SG

      Um, by the way, I was at a urine stall last night, and a guy looked over, and he said, "Circumcised?" And I said, "Nope, that's just the wear and tear."

    9. KS

      Oh, my God. [laughs] You told that joke before.

    10. SG

      Ah, never gets old.

    11. KS

      I'm gonna start clocking your penis jokes.

    12. SG

      Never gets old.

    13. KS

      Oh, by the way, I'm not gonna say Adam Grant, but Adam Grant said you gotta cut back on the penis jokes at the party you missed 'cause you were at the-

    14. SG

      Oh, my nemesis?

    15. KS

      Yes.

    16. SG

      Adam, the mo-

    17. KS

      Your nemesis was like-

    18. SG

      The more successful-

    19. KS

      There's far too many

    20. SG

      ... version of Scott Galloway?

    21. KS

      He's doing a podcast on the Vox Media podcast network with, uh, with Brene Brown, the two of them. They're trying to be the nice version of Scott and Kara, I think. Um, and he was... He's commented on your penis jokes, and I said... And I literally, "Scott," I, I said, "I love them." I defended you so hard.

    22. SG

      I appreciate that.

    23. KS

      Uh, and I was like, "People love them." And he's like, "Yeah, but do you think it's the right thing?" I go, "It's the right thing." I'm g- [laughs] I, no matter how much my brand-

    24. SG

      If that's right, I don't wanna be wrong. And then also-

    25. KS

      Well, I was-

    26. SG

      Also, I wanna be a little bent to the left. Um-

    27. KS

      Yeah. [laughs] Anyway.

    28. SG

      Just a touch bent to the left.

    29. KS

      Congratulations, Brene and Adam, on your new show.

    30. SG

      It's a condition. I'm a special needs person.It's a condition.

Episode duration: 1:14:14

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