EVERY SPOKEN WORD
65 min read · 12,970 words- 0:00 – 1:53
Intro
- KSKara Swisher
The victimization that he has is so massive, you know, that he's always being victimized. Someone's always fucking him. That's his whole worldview. [upbeat music] Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher.
- SGScott Galloway
And I'm Scott Galloway.
- KSKara Swisher
Scott, you're missing the blizzard! It's outside. I should pull it back on-
- SGScott Galloway
Is it a bomb cyclone?
- KSKara Swisher
It's something else. Can you see that or not?
- SGScott Galloway
I see a city being snowed on by an old lady-
- KSKara Swisher
[laughing]
- SGScott Galloway
um, [chuckles] in athleisure.
- KSKara Swisher
It's really-- Today, it's nuts. It's, it is really quite a blizzard. It's a blizzard. It's what's happening here, so just so you know. As we tape, over forty million people in the US are under a blizzard warning, by the way, and snow dropping three inches an hour in some locations. It really is still going on here in New York, um, and it's crazy. It's, it's, it's-- There's a lot of snow happening. We all thought the snow was over. Maybe I'll go take a, a walk in New York and con- and wa- walk in the Central Park and contemplate my life.
- SGScott Galloway
Do what I would do. Go to Chez Margaux and get fucked up, and establish eye contact with a nice, young Russian lady.
- KSKara Swisher
I'm getting an award tonight in Brooklyn. I've got to go out to Brooklyn.
- SGScott Galloway
Of course, you are!
- KSKara Swisher
I am.
- SGScott Galloway
Of cou-
- KSKara Swisher
I'm getting the Governors Award.
- SGScott Galloway
I'm getting an award-
- KSKara Swisher
An Ambie
- SGScott Galloway
... tonight in Brooklyn.
- KSKara Swisher
[chuckles]
- SGScott Galloway
That is the most Kara Swisher thing ever said.
- KSKara Swisher
[chuckles]
- SGScott Galloway
"I'm getting an award in Brooklyn."
- KSKara Swisher
Yes, I have to go there.
- SGScott Galloway
Okay.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah, it's the Ambies.
- SGScott Galloway
What do you... Okay.
- KSKara Swisher
I don't know.
- SGScott Galloway
All right, fine.
- KSKara Swisher
It's the, it's the-
- SGScott Galloway
I'll play along
- 1:53 – 6:12
Drug Lord Killed in Mexico
- KSKara Swisher
going on. Mexican security forces killed the leader of the Jalisco New Generation cartel and eight other cartel members in a Mexican military operation aided by US intelligence support. And then they went crazy, these, these cartels, and they're like, they're in Puerto Vallarta, like Captain Stubing. That's how I know Puerto Vallarta from, from Love Boat, and they're, like, bombing the whole place. And all these Americans have been either diverted from going there or cannot leave there. Not just Americans, but lots of people, and they're, like, attacking neighborhoods, and this footage is really something. All these burnt cars, and i- it's really something. I don't know what you think about it.
- SGScott Galloway
I don't... [exhales] The, the, the, the issue is it's not-- I mean, it's violence, but it feels like it's more structural governance and an economic issue that's been evolving for nearly two decades, and that is these cartels are so inextricably integrated into the economy and even the government.
- KSKara Swisher
That's a really good point.
- SGScott Galloway
And it, it, it's not a traditional drug war in the old sense. It's sort of fragmentation and power vacuums, right? After the breakup of more powerful, consolidated cartels, dozens of regional groups now compete for territory and trafficking routes and increasingly diversified revenue streams, so things like fuel theft, extortion, uh, human smuggling, ille-
- KSKara Swisher
Everything
- SGScott Galloway
... I mean, all kinds of this. Supposedly, they've interrupted the avocado supply chain, and i- i- oftentimes, the violence is about local market control 'cause Mexico's a big economy rather than-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah, no, I get that
- SGScott Galloway
... just narcotics exports.
- KSKara Swisher
It's just that, that this is the reaction, like, to, to just show what they can do to upset economics, right? I guess that's what they're doing, like, with these actions.
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah, the-- I mean, i, i, it, the thing that does so much damage to this, hands down, my favorite place to travel in the world, and I'm very fortunate-
- KSKara Swisher
You love Mexico
- SGScott Galloway
... I get to go to a lot of-- Every year, I go with a, a group of guys to Tulum. I love Cabo. I think, uh, uh, San Miguel de Allende. I just think Mexico-- I also think it's the best bargain in the world. It's six-star service, and food, and culture, and vistas for four-star prices, wherein Eur- whereas in Europe, you get a lot of five-star service for six-star prices. The, you know, I absolutely love the food, the culture, the people, and what happens is Americans immediately are like, "Oh, no, I'm not gonna travel there," and the reality is most of this violence is convi- confined to what I'll call Mexican-on-Mexican violence, but it makes you think-
- KSKara Swisher
Still
- SGScott Galloway
... should I-
- KSKara Swisher
These photos of tourists from, you know, they're all in their hotels and your beaches, and they're just showing enormous amounts of fires. I guess there's s-- There was one guy who was in his hotel room, and he, this guy, these, these two cartel members, they're on motorcycles, set fire to, like, a version of a 7-Eleven there, like, just in front of him, and it was really, uh, it, it's really interesting to experience it this way, like, sort of online. Like, "Hey, I was down here having a margarita, and, oh, yeah, the drug cartels just bombed a car in my neighborhood."
- SGScott Galloway
But this does, this does sort of signal a shift 'cause for the last, for-- In recent years, Mexico's federal strategy, and some people call it appeasement, has been more about containment over confrontation. This is confrontation, and also, we don't, we don't wanna have an honest conversation. The US plays a role here. There's a dimension here, and that is a lot of our firearms flow south. Uh, you know, what drives a lot of the profits here is, is US drug demand, and fentanyl production and trafficking have reshaped the, the supply chain and the economics of the trade. Lower input costs, much higher potency, smaller shipping volumes, so the, the synthetic, the power or economic potency of synthetics have changed the incentive structure. You don't need large cocoa fields or massive kinda drug smuggling convoys. You need kinda like chemical precursors in, in distribution networks and enforcement muscle, but this is-... you know? Yeah, but I'm-- Let me be clear. I'm still going to Mexico.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
I love Mexico.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
I think it's-
- KSKara Swisher
Anyway, it, it's a black eye-
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah
- KSKara Swisher
... for Claudia Sheinbaum, I have to say, even if the US helped her and stuff like that. Anyway, we'll, we'll move on. I, we-
- SGScott Galloway
Well, is it a black eye, or does she show some, some, some muscle here? Like-
- KSKara Swisher
By, by doing-
- SGScott Galloway
I don't know
- KSKara Swisher
... something about it? I don't know. I, I, I don't know.
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah, I don't know either.
- KSKara Swisher
I-- We're gonna keep watching
- 6:12 – 11:28
Resist and Unsubscribe
- KSKara Swisher
it, and I hope people there are safe. How is Resist and Unsubscribe going? Some of you have been writing in, asking. Let's check in on that. For alternatives to big tech that they're unsubscribing from, I'm gonna help you out here, uh, Scott. We asked David Pierce, editor-at-large at The Verge and co-host of The Vergecast, to give us some recommendations. See, everyone's gonna help you, Scott.
- SGScott Galloway
I appreciate that.
- KSKara Swisher
Let's listen to what David has to say.
- SPSpeaker
If I was trying to get rid of big tech apps in my life, my top three or four recommendations would definitely start with Proton. Proton is this company started by a bunch of CERN scientists in Switzerland that is very privacy-focused, and over the years, they've actually built a series of apps that are basically as good as everything you get from Google. They have a drive, they have an email, they have calendar, they have all the stuff. The next one is probably Signal, which is the messaging app I think everyone should switch to. There are things that are good about WhatsApp, even though it's owned by Meta, but Signal is, is a, is an organization run by the right kind of people who believe in the right kind of things. And then the third one is slightly more afield, but I would say anyone who wants to do smart home stuff in their life right now should use Home Assistant. You can use Alexa, you can use HomeKit, you can use Google, but Home Assistant is this very specific, hackable, open system that you control much more completely than you control any of those other systems. Everything from the stuff on your doorbell that's looking out at the world and seeing people come up to your door to, like, the baby monitors inside of your house, who runs that stuff matters.
- KSKara Swisher
That was great. That was great.
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah.
- KSKara Swisher
Those are all three terrific recommendations. So what's going on, Scott?
- SGScott Galloway
Well, first off, uh, uh, it bears repeating: You have been the biggest supporter of this, and I very much appreciate it. Um-
- KSKara Swisher
No problem.
- SGScott Galloway
But as we wind down February... So the two objectives are what I call signal and incentives. Wanted to send a signal to the American public that they have this weapon hiding in plain sight and that their economic decisions can have an impact. I think we've-- I, I think we've hit that, uh, uh, on all levels. We've gotten just a ton of media exposure, ton of unsubscribes. People, I do think there's a large percentage of the populace who now realizes that economic strength is, is strength. The second objective was incentives, and that is to reconfigure the incentives among big tech executives to think twice before they enable or facilitate. I'm not sure we've accomplished that, quite frankly. I, my friends have said it's a conversation on product management teams, but it's not a board-level conversation yet. So the question is, as we wind down February, what do we do?
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah, um-
- SGScott Galloway
And I was con- I was contacted by, um, uh, the Dutch historian, Rutger Bregman-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm, he's great
- SGScott Galloway
... who's been instrumental in this. Yeah, I, I'm a huge fan. By the way, he's only thirty-seven.
- KSKara Swisher
He's a lovely guy.
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah, and super smart, and he reached out and said-
- KSKara Swisher
Just FYI, for people who don't know, he confronted the issue of billionaires at Davos and got a lot of attention-
- SGScott Galloway
He called them a bunch of tax avoiders.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
He basically said, "None of you want to talk about the real issue on the table," [chuckles] which is-
- KSKara Swisher
Right
- SGScott Galloway
... tax avoidance. He's unafraid. I love the guy. And, and, uh, anyways, I, I love authors and academics who are just sort of unafraid. And he contacted me and said, "You've got the brand, the visibility, and the momentum. We have this group of really talented young people and some traction in something called Quit GPT." And his view is, you need to consolidate and focus on one and try and bring them down. And so we're trying to figure out, um, and I'm gonna speak to you about it and some other people, but I've had a bunch of organizations, a bunch of congresspeople, elected representatives, all say: "How do we continue this, and how do we make it more effective?" And it's gotten, uh, I did an, I did an analysis. For us to get the number of visitors, unique visitors to our site, if we paid for it, and we haven't paid a dime, would cost us somewhere between $5 and $9 million. Yeah, it just shows the power of social media, um, in terms of the platforms we've built and the content stream we have, uh, and how powerful podcasts are at driving. But I need to, in the next several days, figure out what we do in March. Is it focusing? Is it different media outlets? What is it that, that helps maintain this momentum? Is it consolidating? There are three or four similar movements around the world. Do we all consolidate? I was on a call with Rutger today, and I was like: If the British, the Russians, and the Americans can come together to defeat Germany, maybe we should figure out a way to all [chuckles] consolidate and come together. But the t- the two points are distilled down to a smaller number of targets, if you will, and also do what you said, develop, uh, um, structure, uh, some full-time resources.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah, I think so. So that, that, that, that, that you can-- They just tell you what to do, right? Essentially. There's, there's a lot of people who do that. One of the things that's, you know, someone who I'm really impressed with, and maybe... Well, she's a Democratic, uh, she wrote a great book about young people organizing. Amanda Litman, who runs Run for Something, and it's to-- I had her on the podcast. She's incredibly, um, uh, you know, strategic in terms of figuring out what people need to do, especially young people. It seems like this is something that you need to get people who are actually a little more, you know, that, that really can focus it energetically. I don't mean professionally, like, 'cause there's a lot of professional organizers that don't really get stuff done. I think you've really-... caught lightning in a bottle here, and you've got to keep doing it. Anyway, we were going-- we're still working on an event, uh, Scott and I are, and so we're going to do that, hopefully. Um, and, uh, and we'll see where it goes from there. Um,
- 11:28 – 24:25
Trump’s Tariff Defeat
- KSKara Swisher
but let's, uh, let's move on to the stuff we have to cover today. Uh, Donald Trump is increasing his global tariffs, uh, to fifteen percent from ten percent, effective immediately, just days after the Supreme Court struck down most of his global tariffs. In a six-to-three decision, the court ruled that Trump exceeded his authority when he invoked the Emergency Powers Act. Trump called the decision ridiculous and anti-American. He also insulted the justices personally quite a bit. Um, that was, you know, it was worse than that. He's just being a giant fucking baby. His latest workaround uses a nineteen seventy-four trade law that allows him to impose temporary tariffs for a hundred and fifty days. He just posted on Truth Social a little while ago about the court empowering him to use the tariffs in a more powerful and obnoxious way. He's just, you know, he's just-- the, the, the court, let me be clear, was very clear about what he was doing was illegal, essentially, and that the Congress and, and, and, uh, Gorsuch, Judge Gorsuch, had a really eviscerating take on how Congress has sort of abrogated its responsibility. Uh, they also are questioning... One of the other justices also questioned whether the ref-- who was against it, con- questions if the, if the, the refunds could happen. Um, Scott Bessent sort of is trying to hedge that bet because they've got to give billions in, uh, in many, many billions in, um, I think a hundred and seventy-five billion, something like that, in returns to US businesses, et cetera. Um, what did you think about this and the reaction? Um, I, I, I'll just fin... Uh, let me, let me actually read through this stuff, we can discuss the whole thing. The repercussions of this tariff decision, the EU just hit pause on its US trade deal until it gets more clarity on what Trump is doing. Thousands of companies around the world have already filed lawsuits challenging the tariffs even before the Supreme Court's ruling, so there's a, a market in that. Estimates suggest the government could owe, again, more than a hundred and seventy-five billion in refunds. The Supreme Court is leaving the refund question. Lower courts, this is Judge Kavanaugh, who warned the process is going to be a mess, and it is. Let's j- let's listen to Secretary Bessent, uh, what he said about these payoffs. He spoke to Fox, Fox News after the decision.
- SPSpeaker
"This could take months, this could take years to, to litigate and to get to the payouts. And i- if there is a payout, uh, it looks like it's just going to be the ultimate corporate welfare."
- KSKara Swisher
Oh, please, Scott, you took the money from them. Give it back. Um, so talk about what the next move is for everybody, and, and, and the reaction that Trump had, which was s- was, was very-- I honestly thought it was dangerous, given the political, uh, heat right now, especially for the Supreme Court justices.
- SGScott Galloway
Well, i- it's weird. Everyone says he's a loser. There's no doubt it's a check on his authority and, you know, a rejection or a gag reflex. The, the primary purpose or power of Congress is the power of the purse. They're the ones that are supposed to... I mean, what you've had on a meta level, and Barry Goldwater, back in the '70s, warned of this, there's been a slow abrogation of power to the executive branch, and a lot of the power was checked by norms, not by laws. And then someone showed up and said: "Fuck the norms. I'm declaring wars and tariffs on my own." And one of the reasons you've seen such, uh, so many Republican congresspeople decide to retire is they're like: "It's one thing to be in the minority and know that you've been defenestrated or neutered. It's another thing to be in the majority, and the speaker of the House is not the speaker of the House. He's the speaker of the White House. He's there just to run roughshod over us and pretend he represents Congress. He doesn't. He represents the president." And Republicans are like: "Wait, I thought we were in charge and had some say here, and we don't." And these tariffs would not have gone through. There are enough Republicans against the tariffs. You know, they're supposed to be the free marketers. So this is a victory for, uh, co-equal branches of government and Congress controlling the purse. I think it's a huge victory for the Supreme Court, who was looking increasingly like Trump's, um, you know, trolls or tr-- not trolls, Trump's acolytes, right? It-- This does look like the independence of the court. Six to three is pretty resounding. In a weird way, I thought this gave Trump an off-ramp from what was clearly a failed economic policy, that I thought the economy and the stock market would actually probably, um, go up. What was interesting is the, the reaction was muted. The market was slightly up, but now it's looking like he's going to use another provision, one twenty-two, which only lasts a hundred and fifty days. But it's more inconsistency, and we've said this for a long time, more than, more than the tariffs themselves, the most damaging thing to American trade policy is inconsistency. Nobody, no small business knows how to plan their business against what will be tariffs or not tariffs. What I've been tracking, I was working with a hedge fund trying to find tariff claims. So if you're Mercedes-Benz of the United States and you paid twenty million tariffs, you could, at one point, potentially buy those claims for ten cents on the dollar. Now, those have accelerated to twenty to forty cents on the dollar, but the reason they're not trading at sixty or eighty cents on the dollar is the administration and complexity of potentially getting the money back. I think that's a red herring. I just don't-- I think if, if they collected this money easily, I don't see why they can't reimburse it easily.
- KSKara Swisher
Correct.
- SGScott Galloway
It was all done digitally, so I don't, I don't buy that argument. But it's more indecision. It's more sclerotic decision-making, where people can't plan their business against. And what you see is just a continued reconfiguration of the global supply chain around the US, where we have massively benefited, overben- You know, someone brought up the notion, the very simple notion, actually, I think it was Justin Liffers that said: "We have a trade deficit in the form of dollars, but we have a trade surplus in the form of stuff." So the example is, I have a trade deficit with my barber, but my barber makes me look just fucking dreamy for very little money.... So it's a good trade. And US trade policy, while we give more paper money to them, we get so much shit because of the strength-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- SGScott Galloway
-of the dollar. I mean, stuff.
- KSKara Swisher
Trump is an, an economic imbecile. Like, he's just-- he's seeing things, like he learned economics in fourth grade, and that's where he's stuck, right? He's so-
- SGScott Galloway
But if you, if you, if you im- if you export $100 worth of NVIDIA chips to Germany in exchange for $100 of a Mercedes G-Wagon, they operate at ten points operating margin and get seven times, you know, EBITDA, so they get $70. We operate, uh, NVIDIA operates at, like, 60 points operating margin and trades at 40, we get $2,400. I mean, i- if there's any asymmetry here of who is, [chuckles] who has disproportionately benefited from global trade, it's been the US. We've been the big winner.
- KSKara Swisher
Well, you know, so i- i- this is stuck in Trump's brain forever because he's just not-- h- honestly, he's not that smart, right? Like, you know, it, [sighs] just in a, in a very basic way, he has this, has had it in his brain, and then he has these facilitators. And by the way, Scott Bessent knows better, of course. He knows exactly what you know, and he's tr-- I don't know what his game is. I mean, it's-- he's talking about tarnishing a reputation that he had that was pretty decent. Um, but one of the, one of the things that's problematic is that he's operating sort of economics for dummies or something. Like, something... Because he sticks in his brain that this is the way things go, and I, I, I think most people don't think about it in, in a, in a complex way. I think the two things that I think about, again, were these-- that the Supreme Court did him a favor here, right? They got him-- he got to try out his stupid-
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah
- KSKara Swisher
... ideas.
- SGScott Galloway
He seems to be doubling down.
- KSKara Swisher
He's doubling down in a really-
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah
- KSKara Swisher
... demented way, and the personal stuff that he was attacking them with, and, you know, apparently-
- SGScott Galloway
Their families should be ashamed.
- KSKara Swisher
Families-
- SGScott Galloway
What?
- KSKara Swisher
... and, uh, Barrett-
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah
- KSKara Swisher
... ah, Coney Barrett and, uh, Gorsuch, I think, um, just really strange. Just really, really strange. And they were-- all they were saying was pointing out the obvious, which was, "This is something Congress should do." It's something Congress's job is to do, and he just doesn't feel any restraints on himself, and that's what it is. And it's like old man combined with someone who's already an egomaniac and a narcissist, combined with more old man, combined with he gets to do what he wants this term. And the victimization that he has is so massive, you know, that he's always being victimized. Someone's always fucking him. That's his whole worldview, that it's just w- we're being governed by a guy who just, again, didn't-- he's a victim, thinks he's a victim. Anyway, uh, we'll see. Where does it go from here, very briefly?
- SGScott Galloway
Well, on Kelsey, they're saying it's a seventy-six percent chance the court orders a tariff refund before 2027. So it does feel like he's running out of options. This, uh, Section One Twenty-Two has a maximum of one hundred and fifty days. The Supreme Court does seem pretty resolute on this, six-three. I don't think he's going to lot it, get a lot of support from even Republicans who are Congress, like: "Oh, wait, we have meaning again? You mean we get to actually have input? You actually have to bring this to us?" And, and if, if he thinks these tariffs have merit and they're good for the economy, then take it to Congress and work out a deal with them.
- KSKara Swisher
That's right.
- SGScott Galloway
That's, that's what they're there for.
- KSKara Swisher
But he doesn't want to, because he can't get it passed. Because he can't get it passed, the way he wants to do it-
- SGScott Galloway
Because he can't justify it intellectually or economically.
- KSKara Swisher
Right. Right. Well, intellectually.
- SGScott Galloway
This is, uh, the, the amount of money, the prosperity we have recognized from global trade... Now, granted, ugh, he- his some of his instincts are correct. We had an asymmetric relationship. We were getting taken advantage of, in my view, in terms of our relationship with China. They, you know, they s- they steal our IP and then sell us stuff at sixty cents on the dollar. We are not good at looking after people who are on the wrong end of global trade, right?
- 24:25 – 29:31
State of the Union Preview
- KSKara Swisher
appear on the day of it. He's walking in with a sixty percent disapproval [chuckles] rating, according to a new Washington Post-ABC/Ipsos poll. House Min- Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is urging Democrats to either attend in silent defiance or skip the speech, and a growing number of Democrats plan to attend a counter-rally on the National Mall called the People's State of the Union. And, uh, Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger is delivering the official Democratic response. It's a good choice. Um, what do you think of this?
- SGScott Galloway
I, I don't think he... Quite frankly, I, I'm wondering if that's if and when we bomb Iran. [chuckles]
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah. Right. An hour before.
- SGScott Galloway
I don't, I don't think he has a lot to s- I, I don't know.
- KSKara Swisher
Apparently, Vance previewed it.
- SGScott Galloway
I think his speechwriters are scratching their head.
- KSKara Swisher
Apparently, he's gonna talk about how manufacturing is coming back to the US, like, tomorrow. It's sort of like an Elon promise of autonomy.
- SGScott Galloway
I think the screenshots here are gonna be really hilarious. The audience reaction, even... I think there's even gonna be some Republicans who are kind of like, "Oh, yeah, polite clap. Uh, yeah, that's not-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
... That's not, that's not working here." I, I, I think it's gonna be very interesting, but I feel as if he's g- you know, they're like: Okay, how do we turn chicken shit into chicken salad here?
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah. Yeah, they're gonna turn- Vance apparently gave an, a interview where he was talking about how we're gonna suddenly have factories everywhere. Like, it's all made up. Literally, it feels like... You know, there was a really interesting meme online of Elon promising autonomy for, like, ten years, like, tomorrow, next week. They're gonna try to say everything's great with the economy, which, to me, when Biden did that, was so ineffective when people know that's not the case. I think this- these, these numbers are just astonishing, that he keeps doubling down, right, on... This sixty percent disapproval is so high. I don't think you- I think it was this number right after the January 6th attack on the Capitol. Uh, I mean, I think that's where we are right now, and, um, it, it'll be interesting. I, I think there's a high chance of crazy, like, that he does something nuts.
- SGScott Galloway
Just goes unchained. [chuckles]
- KSKara Swisher
Unchained, like he says something kooky, or he loses his words. I wouldn't get up there if I were him. You know, of course, he's gonna have ma- pancake makeup caked on his hand. By the way, whoever is doing that, I can tell you there are Hollywood people that can make that hand look better. I keep looking at it, and I'm like: What, is his, like, secretary doing it or, you know, with a bunch of, like, like, cheap makeup? It's really weird. I feel like they could do a better job than that.
- SGScott Galloway
I think it's the same person that came up with the tariff strategy.
- KSKara Swisher
Right, exactly.
- SGScott Galloway
It's just-
- KSKara Swisher
It's Peter Navarro slabbering, you know, [chuckles] Mac makeup.
- SGScott Galloway
[chuckles] Hold your hand out.
- KSKara Swisher
It's not even Mac makeup.
- SGScott Galloway
My niece works, my niece works at Sephora.
- KSKara Swisher
[laughing]
- SGScott Galloway
This is how you do it.
- KSKara Swisher
[chuckles] But seriously, I think it is a good chance of crazy. Good chan- like, a high chance of crazy, like something-
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah. I agree.
- KSKara Swisher
I wouldn't do it if I were him. I'd find some dumb excuse not to do it, but he ne- he, he's now-
- SGScott Galloway
War
- KSKara Swisher
... a heat-seeking me- missile. Have you noticed how much he's been, like, appearing? Like, he keeps appearing everywhere. I don't know. I just feel like it's bad.
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah.
- KSKara Swisher
And speaking of which, uh, I think it's gonna... We'll see what happens, but, w- the, at the very least, if he doesn't say something crazy, poop his pants, or, or lose his words, and it'll be fine, I guess, and doesn't just lie too much, um, I don't know. What should the Democrats do? Just show up and say nothing, stare angrily?
- SGScott Galloway
I think you just, I think you just sit there and kind of look like: "Okay-
- 29:31 – 41:27
Trump Threatens Netflix
- KSKara Swisher
Trump has called on Netflix to fire board member Susan Rice or, quote, "Pay the consequences," after Rice said Democrats would push for corporate accountability. The DOJ is investigating Netflix's proposed takeover of Warner Brothers and whether the deal may, quote, "Substantially lessen competition." And Paramount saying there's, quote, "No statutory impediment to closing its deal for Warner Brothers after clearing a US antitrust waiting period." This is not true. Uh, regulators could still stop to sue, and, of course, there's the EU and other, uh, other ways. This is not... This was a press release. Meanwhile, a group of Democratic senators is threatening to investigate Paramount, seeking information on the company's contacts with the Trump administration. As we tape, the seven-day window for Warner Brothers to talk with Paramount i- is nearing an end at eleven fifty-nine PM on Monday. So talk about this, this Trump thing. I mean, Susan Rice? Like, what... I mean, maybe it'll have an implication. I don't know. It's just weird. You can't ma-- like, he tried to get Lisa Monaco from stopping working at Microsoft, and Microsoft just ignored him, essentially, and she's still working there. Um, do you think it's important? What do, what do, what do you think here?
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah, it's, it's incredibly socialist. Capital markets function on the assumption that boards are accountable to shareholders, that regulatory authority is exercised through formal channels, and that political power is used as leverage in private corporate disputes. And, you know, when those lines erode, you introduce political risk and into ordinary governance decisions. W- Capitalism is supposed to be regulated competition, and y- y- a guy who just has a history of bankrupting casinos and leaving a stream of unpaid subcontractors, uh, you know, who got rich through a grift, monetizing the White House, is not the person to be telling companies... It's just, it's totally anathema to the way America has built its economy. It, you know, y- y- when political actors treat corporate boards as cultural back, uh, battlegrounds, you shipped, you shift from kind of rules-based capitalism to personality-driven capitalism. Investors, investors c- can price regulation, but they struggle to price discretionary political targeting. So does this mean every time the administration changes, we invest in companies that are-- have Democratic board members versus Republican-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- SGScott Galloway
... board members, and-
- KSKara Swisher
Exactly
- SGScott Galloway
... practically-
- KSKara Swisher
You nailed it
- SGScott Galloway
... if pre, if presidents start leaning on boards, it invites Congress, regulators, and state officials to do the same, and that's not-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- SGScott Galloway
... market discipline.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
That's politicized corporate-
- KSKara Swisher
We won't give you this unless you get rid of this person. I mean-
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah, the whole-
- KSKara Swisher
... so far, again, it didn't work with Lisa Monaco at Microsoft. They just basically ignored the request.
- SGScott Galloway
And I think... So I was with some Netflix people. I went to the BAFTA Awards last night, and I, um-
- KSKara Swisher
Oh, you did?
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah, I did.
- KSKara Swisher
You went to BAFTA? Well, hello, where are the lead would you wear?
- SGScott Galloway
Oh, I'd, I, I didn't know BAFTA was a big deal, and I showed up just with a blazer, and then-
- KSKara Swisher
Uh-huh
- SGScott Galloway
... Ted Sarandos came up to me in a tux, and I'm like, "Oh, God, I fucked up."
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah. Okay.
- SGScott Galloway
Um-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah, he was there.
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah, uh, but everyone... Yeah, it was really, really fancy. I didn't... A f- a friend of mine took me to dinner and said, "Do you wanna go to the BAFTA Awards?" I was like, "Yeah."
- KSKara Swisher
Wow.
- SGScott Galloway
And anyways-
- KSKara Swisher
That's cool
- SGScott Galloway
... but, uh, uh, uh, they will... I, I, I have no inside information here, but I know what smart, class act Netflix management is. I am sure if they haven't already, they'll put out a statement of support for Susan Rice. And this is, uh, this has become so obviously, he's now supporting, um, Paramount. But I talked to some Netfl- I think that at this point, these- so much testosterone has gotten involved in this. If you had asked either, uh, the Ellisons or Ted Sarandos six months ago, "Are you willing-- would you ever pay eighty-two billion dollars for Warner?" They'd say, "No fucking way. [chuckles] It's not worth that in any world." But because Zaslav, to his credit, is not a great operator, but he's an outstanding investment banker, he has played them off each other and convinced both of them to overpay. If the Ellisons end up getting this and Netflix doesn't, my prediction is that Netflix's stock is up ten to twenty percent. Because N- with eighty billion dollars, Netflix can create just a shit ton of content, new verticals, new markets, new subscription plans. They'll be able to... At this point, I think it would almost be better for them if they lost, and they just sue the shit out of Paramount and the government and basically create- keep Hollywood in a state of flux-
- 41:27 – 49:55
“HALO” Companies
- KSKara Swisher
'cause you've talked about the, the problems that companies not AI are having, but Wall Street is taking interest in a new category called HALO companies, heavy assets, low obsolescence, businesses seen as largely immune to disruption from AI. Really interesting. S&P 500 sectors for industrials, materials, utilities, and consumer staples have marched ahead in the last month. Companies like McDonald's and ExxonMobil are taking a win as investors try to take cover from potential AI disruption. Now, you said a lot of these companies have suffered because AI has taken most of the gains in the stock market. Talk a- talk about this. This was a story in The Wall Street Journal, but it's something we've discussed before, was the other four hundred companies, not the first s- the top seven or whatever.
- SGScott Galloway
There's been a rotation out of AI companies into what are traditionally thought of as defense stocks, like Procter & Gamble or Caterpillar, but they have been run up. And so what you've had is you've had this weird phenomena where there's been a pretty serious, like, multi-trillion dollar destruction in the private and public market valuations of the companies most tightly associated with AI, whether it's NVIDIA or Microsoft or, you know... They, they have all gotten hit pretty hard. What's also interesting, though, and then there's been a rotation into, quote-unquote, "the defensive guys that are considered AI immune." Goldman Sachs put together an AI immune index. The opportunity in all of this, and where I'm actually thinking of investing, is that while AI stocks have come down, you know, the- there's still a massive fear that they're gonna destroy entire sectors, and the sectors that are ground zero for this fear right now are traditional SaaS companies: Salesforce, ServiceNow, um, Adobe. The view is, since this new innovation from, um, Claude, I'm sorry, from Claude, that those businesses, that someone will just am- automatically put in a prompt, and all of a sudden, overnight, no longer need Salesforce for their CRM, for, for their salespeople, and that overnight, Salesforce is gonna go away. I mean, Salesforce and Adobe and ServiceNow, these companies are off somewhere between forty and seventy percent. These companies-- and by the way, there's absolutely no evidence whatsoever-
- KSKara Swisher
As you noted last week, yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
So these companies are growing at double digits. Meanwhile, some of these old economy companies that are growing at single digits are trading at much higher multiples. So I would argue that one of the biggest opportunities in the market right now is the traditional SaaS companies. As a multiple on their free cash flow, they've, they've-
- KSKara Swisher
This is beyond these HALO companies, beyond the McDonald's-
- SGScott Galloway
No, I think the HALO guys, quite frankly, are overpriced right now.
- KSKara Swisher
Oh, interesting.
- SGScott Galloway
They're low-growth companies trading at exceptional P/Es. Meanwhile... I mean, uh, keep in mind, if you think-- So at all my companies, we've had Salesforce. I don't care if some kid-- If some kid came to me and said, "Okay, we can kind of replicate Salesforce with a thoughtful prompt into Anthropic," I'd be like: Okay, we're gonna have to retrain everybody on a new UI. Th- these companies get so... They have client service, they have events, they have, they have worked out millions of bugs over a couple years. Y- I get invited to Dreamforce if I spend enough money. [chuckles] The thought that all of a sudden people are just gonna strip out Adobe or Figma or ServiceNow is just... These companies are so deeply embedded. You can call it technical debt, you can call it switching costs, whatever it is. In addition, if, if AI can actually take the coding down to something meaningless, then what will happen, I think, is that these SaaS companies will reduce their costs by ten or twenty percent, which gives you-- Th- their actual coding and technical costs are only ten or twenty percent of their revenue. The other eighty percent is marketing, branding, client service, design, events. I- is, so that shows you where the value is. They'll do the same thing and then pass on those savings. So you might see some mild margin compression, but I think the flight into, quote-unquote, "defensive stocks," I think that trade has been overdone, and I think there's one of the biggest... I haven't been able to find value anywhere. I've been selling, not buying, for the first time in a long time. I look at these SaaS companies. There is absolutely no evidence anywhere that a large corporation is giving up Adobe or Salesforce and putting in new prompts into AI. So I think that threat has been massively over, overdone. Also, I think the rotation into these more traditional low-growth companies, quite frankly, I think those guys are really overvalued right now. These are low-growth companies trading at a tech growth multiples.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah, I, I would agree. I think you're absolutely right. I think that's a really interesting take on that. The, it, it, it is interesting that people are looking beyond AI, right? Like, where are the opportunities? And I think, I think your argument is excellent. So what are you buying?
- SGScott Galloway
Oh, I'm gonna put together probably a basket of Figma, Adobe, Salesforce, maybe ServiceNow, but I, I look at those companies, and unless there's a collapse in their business model... Do you know how hard it is to get rid of... I remember, you know, i, i-- These companies are so deeply embedded. I remember we were paying twenty-five thousand dollars a year for my terminal for Bloomberg, and we thought, "Okay, let's go to Thomson Reuters. It's cheaper." Bloomberg is so tightly integrated into your life if you're managing a hedge fund. Even messaging, e- the way we message-
- KSKara Swisher
But things do get-
- SGScott Galloway
... other people in the hedge fund business
- KSKara Swisher
- replaced over time, Scott.
- SGScott Galloway
What's that?
- KSKara Swisher
Things, things do get replaced over time, right?
- SGScott Galloway
I think what's gonna happen here is margin compression-
- KSKara Swisher
We used to buy in a box, if you remember, a lot of the stuff.
- SGScott Galloway
But they'll, the-- I think they'll cut costs. I mean, I still think... I mean, for example, Salesforce, I actually think it was really brilliant branding. They have built some of the tallest buildings in every one of their markets in the world. There, there's probably, if they needed to, quite a bit of cost they could cut and pass on to their consumers. These are smart people. What they might say is-
- SPSpeaker
... if they see a threat, they might say: "Oh, Salesforce is now point six X per seat versus X per seat." These are smart, well-run management teams. Uh, and by the way, no evidence whatsoever that any of this is impacting any of those companies.
- KSKara Swisher
Yes, that is the-
- SPSpeaker
None whatsoever.
- KSKara Swisher
That is the bigger point. All right, Scott's going different than HALO. He's going... What are we gonna call them? So S, S, not dead, S, software as a service.
- SPSpeaker
I would say, uh, uh, abandoned, abandoned... It's like that little monkey who was, uh, [chuckles] who was rejected by his, his family and found a plushie.
- KSKara Swisher
[laughing]
- SPSpeaker
It's the plushie strategy.
- KSKara Swisher
I knew you watched that. [chuckles]
- SPSpeaker
I can't stop watching that little monkey.
- KSKara Swisher
I know. [chuckles] I know.
- SPSpeaker
I can't stop watching.
- KSKara Swisher
Did you see the one where-
- 49:55 – 1:04:09
Wins and Fails
- KSKara Swisher
So win, the Olympics just ended. They were quite good. US women and women in general dominated. America's female O- Olympians won six gold medals and seventeen medals overall. American men won four gold medals and twelve medals overall. It's not a competition, but they did really well. Um, and, uh, in any case, one of the things I was really struck by was not an American, but someone who is American, uh, Eileen Gu, uh, who won the gold medal in the women's free s- uh, free ski half pipe event for China. She's been, been medaling for China, just won a couple of silvers. She's been really plagued by stupid questions, largely from male, um, reporters. But she got asked a question, uh, when asked, uh, by a, a woman: "What-- Do you think about your words before you speak?" It actually was a very complimentary question, saying: "You're so well-spoken. How do you do it?" And so let, let's listen to her answer, which I thought was so superb. She's gorgeous, she's a model, she's a skier, she's an athlete, et cetera. Let's, let's listen.
- SPSpeaker
I think overall, I'm just a pensive person. Like, I'm a very introspective... I'm an introspective young woman. Like, I spend a lot of time in my head, um, and it's not a bad place to be. I, I journal a lot. I break down all of my thought processes. I think I apply a very analytical lens to my own thinking, and I kind of modify it because it's so interesting. You can control what you think. Like, you can control how you think, and therefore, you can control who you are, and especially as a young person, like, I'm twenty-two, so with neuroplasticity on my side, I can literally become exactly who I want to be. How cool is that? Like, how empowering is that, right?
- KSKara Swisher
I think she was quite lively in a way that I really enjoyed listening to her, uh, you know, push back against people. Very- a lot of these athletes, whether they were some of the skaters, uh, the women skaters were astonishing, and they're, they're their own people. I really enjoyed this for that, for all these, uh, these athletes, especially the women, showing off. They don't have to be adorable little dolls. They were just their own people. I really like that. My fail is related. It's when Trump called the US, uh, men's hockey team in the locker room after their victory, where Cash Patel was making a fucking idiot of himself, chugging beers and acting like he was twenty-one when he's old and spending taxpayer money, but let's not get into that imbecile. But anyways, Trump then tried to said, "Hold my beer," to Kash Patel, and he invited them to the State of the Union and the White House, but let's listen to how he said it.
- SPSpeaker
We'll do the White House the next day. We'll just have some fun. We have medals for you guys. And we have to, I must tell you, we're gonna have to bring the women's team. You do know that? [laughing] Absolutely. [laughing] If we don't do that, I do believe I probably would be impeached, okay? [laughing]
- KSKara Swisher
It's so great to have a really old man make a stupid old man joke, and that is fine. He is what he is, and it was just gross to insult the women who had just won the gold medal. Um, instead, the guys laughed, and I get it, I get it, I get it. You're in a locker room, you just won, you're all excited, and you have the president calling you, but you don't have to laugh at his jerky joke. And it, it, it doesn't shed good light on you to do this and to cut down the women's team just because you win, 'cause of this imbecile old man said this thing. I think his time is over for, for talking about women like they're battle axes or they're such a pain to be here, and, "Oh, the ladies." It's tiresome in the extreme. Um, I'm not someone who doesn't like a good joke. I put up with Scott's all the time, but this is just not funny, and it isn't funny to the women's team. Now, a day later, after Trump did invite the US, uh, women's hockey team, it turns out they simply can't make it. "Sorry, Donald Trump, we're getting our hair washed or washing our hair." I don't know. Whatever stupid excuse, they don't wanna, they don't wanna hang with you. A spokesman for the team said: "We are sincerely grateful for the invitation extended to our gold medal-winning US women's hockey team," and added that they would not be able to attend, quote, "due to the timing and previously scheduled academic and professional commitments."... I love that. And I'm gonna just relate very quickly. When my son, Louie, was on a men's soccer, lacrosse team, there was a v- there was an audio of something where they-- it really insulted the girls in the class really badly. Like, really, like, it was a dumb, stupid, sexually charged, um, song they played. I don't remember it exactly, but they got a video of it, of course, because everything's videotaped. And it was gross what they were doing. They were insulting their classmates, like, in a really sexist way. And Louie wasn't singing the song. I-- he was in [chuckles] the video, he wasn't singing the song. But I remember, um, it, you know, when I saw it, I was so disappointed in him 'cause he didn't say anything, right? He didn't, like... And I know he couldn't, he was in the locker room, and so we had a great talk at the time. And I remember spending a lot of time talking to both my boys about their role in pro-- like you say, protecting women. Not just protecting, but don't laugh at stupid shit like that. Like, you don't have to go along just to get along, and it was really-- it reminded me of that moment when, when Louie said to me at the time: "You know, I didn't do anything." And I said, "You didn't do anything. That's exactly my problem with you at this moment." And I get it. I get what it's like being a boy. I get the pressures of it, but honestly, US Men's Soccer Hockey team, you know, uh, just b-be better, let's just say. Let's say be better. That's what I would say to you, is if I were your parent, I'd slap you back to last Sunday. Anyway, that's my... Go ahead. Congratulations, by the way, US Men's Hockey team and the Women's Hockey team.
- SGScott Galloway
The-- I, I thought the highlight of the Winter Olympics was, um, Megan Keller, who scored the overtime. I, I grew up going to hockey games. It was the only one of the few ways my father and I bonded. We used to go to LA Kings games and watch Marcel Dionne and Whitey Whiting and Rogie Vachon, and, uh, so I know something about hockey, and I used to go to Maple Leafs games with my father. The, the overtime goal from Megan Keller, uh, hands down for me, was the, the ultimate demonstration of athletic- athleticism, grace under pressure. And keep in mind, you know, w- these women are really doing it for the love of the sport. They don't-- uh, their league does not pay a lot.
- KSKara Swisher
Can I point out, Alyssa Lou and the three others, the three other women from the US, were all supportive of each other. Like, they weren't like-
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah
- KSKara Swisher
... at each other's fucking-
- SGScott Galloway
There's, there's this level of camaraderie.
- KSKara Swisher
Alyssa Lou, amazing.
- SGScott Galloway
I do not fault the men for laughing. They're in a locker room-
- KSKara Swisher
I know, I get it
- SGScott Galloway
... they're talking to the president.
- KSKara Swisher
I get it.
- SGScott Galloway
And most of them are, like, twenty-three-year-olds from Wisconsin.
- KSKara Swisher
I get it.
- SGScott Galloway
They don't-
- KSKara Swisher
I get it.
- SGScott Galloway
Not that there's anything wrong with... But, but, yeah, I don't fault them. I fault the president for not setting a good example for young men.
- KSKara Swisher
Right, right.
- SGScott Galloway
You know, that's just not... And but the, the women, uh, did you see the final of the, the women's hockey?
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah, it was amazing!
- SGScott Galloway
The goal she pulled off-
- KSKara Swisher
I know, the-
- SGScott Galloway
... was so extr- I, I, I kept watching it over and-- I spent twenty minutes watching it [chuckles] forty times.
- KSKara Swisher
I know, it's amazing.
- SGScott Galloway
Anyways, uh, Megan Keller was-
- KSKara Swisher
You're right, they don't get, they don't get to star in a heated rivalry, et cetera. They-- i-it really is. They, they, they're an astonishing team-
- SGScott Galloway
Oh, my God!
Episode duration: 1:04:09
Install uListen for AI-powered chat & search across the full episode — Get Full Transcript
Transcript of episode cHzfdkpVcW4
Get more out of YouTube videos.
High quality summaries for YouTube videos. Accurate transcripts to search & find moments. Powered by ChatGPT & Claude AI.
Add to Chrome