Richard Hanania - Foreign Policy, Fertility, and Experts

Richard Hanania - Foreign Policy, Fertility, and Experts

Dwarkesh PodcastFeb 24, 20221h 2m

Richard Hanania (guest), Dwarkesh Patel (host), Dwarkesh Patel (host)

Public choice theory versus grand strategy in explaining U.S. foreign policyEffectiveness and consequences of sanctions, regime change, and military interventionsDifferences between democracies and autocracies (e.g., China) in foreign policy coherenceLimits and failures of academic expertise in social sciences and international relationsRise of wokeness, institutional liberalism, and engagement asymmetries between left and rightGovernment, culture, and policy tools for addressing low fertility and pronatalismStrategic options for libertarians and anti‑woke conservatives in a polarized system

In this episode of Dwarkesh Podcast, featuring Richard Hanania and Dwarkesh Patel, Richard Hanania - Foreign Policy, Fertility, and Experts explores richard Hanania Dissects Foreign Policy Myths, Wokeness, and Falling Fertility Richard Hanania discusses his book arguing that U.S. foreign policy is better explained by public choice theory and interest-group politics than by any coherent grand strategy. He contrasts the supposed rational, unified “national interest” with messy, domestically driven incentives that produce sanctions, wars, and alliances that often lack consistency or effectiveness.

Richard Hanania Dissects Foreign Policy Myths, Wokeness, and Falling Fertility

Richard Hanania discusses his book arguing that U.S. foreign policy is better explained by public choice theory and interest-group politics than by any coherent grand strategy. He contrasts the supposed rational, unified “national interest” with messy, domestically driven incentives that produce sanctions, wars, and alliances that often lack consistency or effectiveness.

The conversation broadens into a critique of expertise and social science, claiming many expert-driven institutions—especially in international relations, criminology, and COVID policy—are captured by ideology and lack market-style feedback or accountability.

Hanania then analyzes why liberalism and wokeness have advanced institutionally, emphasizing asymmetries in political engagement, the structure of civil rights law, and the culture of elite sectors like tech, academia, and media.

Finally, he examines fertility collapse and the potential for authoritarian or culturally interventionist states (especially China) to engineer higher birth rates, and he sketches what a realistic libertarian anti-woke strategy might look like in a polarized America.

Key Takeaways

Foreign policy is driven more by fragmented interests than by a unified grand strategy.

Hanania argues that U. ...

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Sanctions and regime change often fail and can worsen humanitarian and geopolitical outcomes.

Cases like Venezuela, Iran, and Iraq suggest U. ...

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Authoritarian systems can produce more coherent—but not necessarily wiser—foreign policies.

China’s more focused, regional, and goal-aligned actions (e. ...

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Expert-driven social sciences often lack real-world feedback and are vulnerable to ideology.

Unlike hard sciences tethered to experiment and markets, fields like IR, criminology, and parts of psychology operate amid strong social-desirability pressures and weak falsification, enabling fads, politicization, and selective “expert” legitimation.

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Wokeness advanced because highly motivated liberals colonized key institutions under favorable rules.

Hanania highlights that liberals care more, organize more, and operate in sectors like academia, media, NGOs, tech, and bureaucracy, while civil rights law and HR regimes structurally empower their priorities inside organizations.

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Fertility decline is mainly cultural, and a determined state could reshape norms.

High fertility correlates more with culture and religiosity than with income; in principle, an authoritarian government could censor anti-natalist messaging, redesign education, tax the childless, and aggressively promote family norms to raise birthrates.

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A viable libertarian strategy is to exploit polarization and link anti‑woke goals to shrinking the state.

Hanania suggests libertarians should show conservatives that many woke outcomes are downstream of expansive civil rights enforcement and public funding, and that cutting state power and budgets—not just passing new rules—can undercut hostile institutions.

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Notable Quotes

We don’t think there’s a grand strategy of the US government for immigration or healthcare, but for some reason we imagine one exists for foreign policy.

Richard Hanania

When the US sanctions somebody, it destroys the economy and then never talks to them again; that’s far less coherent than what China usually does.

Richard Hanania

The idea of expertise can be harmful because it gives people in power a veneer of legitimacy to do irrational things.

Richard Hanania

As humans have become more able to afford kids, they’ve tended to have fewer of them—that’s a strong argument against fertility being mainly an economic issue.

Richard Hanania

You actually haven’t done anything close to libertarianism, and now you’re making libertarianism the scapegoat for all these negative trends.

Richard Hanania

Questions Answered in This Episode

If public choice theory explains foreign policy better than grand strategy, how should we redesign foreign policy institutions to reduce harmful interest-group capture?

Richard Hanania discusses his book arguing that U. ...

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Under what conditions, if any, would broad sanctions or regime-change wars be morally or strategically justifiable?

The conversation broadens into a critique of expertise and social science, claiming many expert-driven institutions—especially in international relations, criminology, and COVID policy—are captured by ideology and lack market-style feedback or accountability.

Get the full analysis with uListen AI

How could we build feedback mechanisms—like prediction markets or track-record-based systems—into social science and policy advice to improve expert accountability?

Hanania then analyzes why liberalism and wokeness have advanced institutionally, emphasizing asymmetries in political engagement, the structure of civil rights law, and the culture of elite sectors like tech, academia, and media.

Get the full analysis with uListen AI

What concrete cultural levers could a liberal democracy realistically use to raise fertility without sliding into heavy-handed authoritarianism?

Finally, he examines fertility collapse and the potential for authoritarian or culturally interventionist states (especially China) to engineer higher birth rates, and he sketches what a realistic libertarian anti-woke strategy might look like in a polarized America.

Get the full analysis with uListen AI

Is there a politically plausible path for libertarians to influence the Republican Party agenda in a way that both reduces state power and effectively counters wokeness?

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Transcript Preview

Richard Hanania

So, like, there's this idea on, like, the populist right, that, like, we tried libertarianism and now wokeness has taken over it. I'm like, "Okay, when did Republicans repeal the Civil Rights Act? Like, when did that happen? When did they defund public educa- education?"

Dwarkesh Patel

(laughs)

Richard Hanania

Like, no, you actually haven't done anything close to libertarianism, and now you're making libertarianism the scapegoat, um, for all these negative trends.

Dwarkesh Patel

Right. (upbeat music) Today, I'm speaking with Richard Hanania, who is the president of the Center for the Study of Partisanship & Ideology, and the author of the new book, Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy. So Richard, first, can you just summarize the book briefly before we get into questions?

Richard Hanania

Uh, sure. So, the argument of my book is, it's, you know, it, it has two real audiences. So first, people who study international relations, political scientists, there's something in there for them. And there's also, I think, something in there for people who are just interested in American foreign policy more generally. Um, so the way that academics, uh, tend to study foreign policy, and this is, this is a, you know, a simplification, but if you're gonna have to, you know, generalize about, um, the way sort of it's understood in political science and the field of international relations. Uh, the idea is that states basically are rational actors, and rational actors doesn't mean what they do is, um, necessarily good for the world, or, um, or, you know, whether their values are consistent with other people's values. But basically that states seek certain goals, and their behavior can be understood in that context. Um, so basically, the study of grand strategy is sort of a, um, is a, uh, um, is a sort of a corollary of this. And the idea is that diplomatic, economic, and military means tend to be, um, put towards the s- -put towards the same goals. They're all basically moving in the same direction. Um, and I think this view of understanding foreign policy is, um, is sort of naive. My main argument, um, is that we don't think like this in terms of domestic policy. We don't think that there's a grand strategy of the US government with regards to immigration, uh, with regards to healthcare, with regards to, uh, tax system. It, it's sort of a, um, the, there's a fallacy of seeing a design in an international, uh, kind of a design in international relations, um, or kind of a, um, you know, a kind of a sort of goal-focused behavior, and we tend not to make that mistake in, uh, in other areas. So, that's, you know, the first two chapters are basically the, uh, uh, the theoretical, you know, th- the theoretical case for why a lot of the ways we look at international relations is wrong. Um, that, you know, if people are interested in academic, uh, works, they're interested in sort of thinking about ideas and political philosophy, I think they're, you know, people will enjoy those chapters. And then most of the rest of the book is basically looking at American foreign policy and asking, does a theory of grand strategy or a theory, uh, based on public choice, which I present as an alternative model, does that explain things like when the US, um, US, uh, mili- uh, troop pre- presence of tr- troop presences abroad? Um, when we start and, and, uh, end various wars, uh, the American sanctions regime. So, ma- major parts of American foreign policy, and I argue that the public choice, uh, model of foreign policy just works better.

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