Garett Jones — Immigration, national IQ, & less democracy

Garett Jones — Immigration, national IQ, & less democracy

Dwarkesh PodcastJan 24, 20231h 14m

Garett Jones (guest), Dwarkesh Patel (host), Narrator, Narrator, Narrator

National IQ, elite vs median intelligence, and economic productivityCultural transmission through migration and the “spaghetti theory” of assimilationOpen borders, institutional quality, and long-run global innovationDeep roots (state, agriculture, technology history) and cross-country developmentDemocracy, technocracy, and the role of bondholders in disciplining governmentsPolicy design for immigration (selection, points systems, and externalities)Ethnic diversity, trust, and long-run cultural and economic effects

In this episode of Dwarkesh Podcast, featuring Garett Jones and Dwarkesh Patel, Garett Jones — Immigration, national IQ, & less democracy explores garrett Jones links migration, IQ, and democracy’s long-run tradeoffs Economist Garrett Jones discusses how national IQ, culture, and migration shape institutions, productivity, and innovation over decades rather than just in the short run.

Garrett Jones links migration, IQ, and democracy’s long-run tradeoffs

Economist Garrett Jones discusses how national IQ, culture, and migration shape institutions, productivity, and innovation over decades rather than just in the short run.

He argues that migrants bring durable cultural traits from their origin countries, which can change institutional quality in receiving nations through both voting and everyday norms, not just via formal politics.

Jones contends that the mean and median skill level of a country’s population matter more for long-run institutional quality than small gains in elite talent, and that rich, innovative democracies should be cautious about policies—like large-scale low-skill immigration—that may lower national averages.

He extends his broader thesis from Hive Mind and 10% Less Democracy: smarter populations generate positive externalities and support better governance, and somewhat constraining democracy in favor of expert-led institutions (like central banks) can improve long-run outcomes.

Key Takeaways

National average IQ appears to drive long-run productivity more than elite IQ alone.

Jones’ work suggests that a country’s mean or median cognitive ability better predicts income and institutional quality than just the right tail, because average skill levels shape the overall ‘hive mind’ and externalities everyone experiences.

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Low-skill immigration can impose long-run institutional costs even if short-run microeconomic gains look positive.

While standard comparative-advantage stories about cheap labor and specialization hold in the short run, Jones argues migrants also bring persistent cultural and governance norms, which—when imported from more corrupt or lower-trust environments—tend to reduce economic freedom over time.

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Cultural change is bidirectional: migrants assimilate natives as much as natives assimilate migrants.

Through his ‘spaghetti theory,’ Jones emphasizes that societies meet in the middle: Italians didn’t just adopt American culture; they changed American eating habits, illustrating how even non-political contact can shift norms and, eventually, institutions.

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Policy should prioritize protecting global innovation hubs from institutional degradation.

Because a handful of ‘I7’ countries (e. ...

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Deep historical factors (statehood, agriculture, technology) predict modern development but are not yet policy-ready tools.

Jones uses S-A-T deep roots scores to explain national differences, but says we’re at an early ‘Friedman 1960s’ stage—good for broad insight, not yet for hard quotas; at most they might become small plus-factors in future points-based immigration systems.

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Technocratic, insulated institutions often perform better than fully democratized ones.

Comparing the Federal Reserve to agencies like the FDA/CDC, Jones argues that long terms, budgetary independence, and distance from day-to-day politics allow expert bodies to pursue long-run goals more effectively than institutions tightly controlled by elected officials.

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Bond markets already discipline governments more than many voters realize.

The Liz Truss episode in the UK and low yields on long-term US Treasuries illustrate, for Jones, that bondholders credibly constrain fiscal policy; he predicts US deficits will eventually be closed via slower welfare growth and possibly a VAT, rather than inflationary default.

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Notable Quotes

Anything that lowers the innovation in the world's most innovative countries has negative costs for the entire planet in the long run.

Garrett Jones

Migrants assimilate us.

Garrett Jones

It's amazing how your worldview changes when you see everybody as an externality.

Garrett Jones

We should presume that the average skill level of voters, the average traits that we're bringing from our ancestors are having an effect on our current productivity for good or ill.

Garrett Jones

Go ahead and run your experiments in Iceland. Let's run that for 50 years and see what happens.

Garrett Jones

Questions Answered in This Episode

If average national IQ and culture matter so much for institutions, how should policymakers ethically balance the interests of would-be migrants against the long-run health of innovation hubs?

Economist Garrett Jones discusses how national IQ, culture, and migration shape institutions, productivity, and innovation over decades rather than just in the short run.

Get the full analysis with uListen AI

What kinds of concrete evidence would most convincingly show that large-scale low-skill migration either does or does not erode economic freedom and institutional quality over decades?

He argues that migrants bring durable cultural traits from their origin countries, which can change institutional quality in receiving nations through both voting and everyday norms, not just via formal politics.

Get the full analysis with uListen AI

How could we design an immigration system that captures the benefits of high-skill and culturally compatible migrants without sliding into crude or discriminatory criteria?

Jones contends that the mean and median skill level of a country’s population matter more for long-run institutional quality than small gains in elite talent, and that rich, innovative democracies should be cautious about policies—like large-scale low-skill immigration—that may lower national averages.

Get the full analysis with uListen AI

To what extent can early-childhood health and education interventions in low-income countries realistically raise national IQ and institutional quality, compared to simply allowing more migration?

He extends his broader thesis from Hive Mind and 10% Less Democracy: smarter populations generate positive externalities and support better governance, and somewhat constraining democracy in favor of expert-led institutions (like central banks) can improve long-run outcomes.

Get the full analysis with uListen AI

Where is the optimal tradeoff between democracy and technocracy: how much ‘less democracy’ is desirable before we risk unaccountable or self-serving elites?

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Transcript Preview

Garett Jones

Go ahead and run your experiments in Iceland. Let's run that for 50 years and see what happens. It's weird how everybody's obsessed with it running the experiment in America, right? They'll balance the long run budget on the, kind of, the backs of the poor and the middle class. Anything that lowers the innovation in the world's most innovative countries has negative costs for the entire planet in the long run. But that's something you'd only see over the course of 20, 30, 50 years, and libertarians and open border advocates are very rarely interested in that kind of timeframe. It's worth thinking through why it is that the successful so-called monarchies aren't really monarchies, right? They're really oligarchies. We should presume that the average skill level of voters, the average traits that we're bringing from our ancestors are having an effect on our current productivity for good or ill.

Dwarkesh Patel

Okay. Today, I have the pleasure of speaking with Garrett Jones, who is an economist at George Mason University. He's most recently the author of The Cultural Transplant: How Migrants Make the Economies They Move to a Lot Like the Ones They Left but he's also the author of 10% Less Democracy and Hive Mind. We'll get into all three of those books. Garrett, welcome to the podcast.

Garett Jones

Glad to be here. Thanks for having me.

Dwarkesh Patel

Um, first question. Is, isn't The Cultural Transplant still a continuation of your argument against democracy? Because, uh, isn't one of the reasons we care about the values of migrants the fact that we live in a democracy? So, should we view this book as part of your critique against democracy rather than against migration specifically?

Garett Jones

Um, well, I do think that, uh, governments and productivity are shaped by the citizens in a nation in, in almost any event. Um, I think that even, as we've seen recently in China, even in a very strong authoritarian dictatorship, which some would call totalitarian, even there, the government has to listen to the masses. So, the government can only get so far away from the masses on average, even in, uh, an autocracy.

Dwarkesh Patel

If you had to split apart the contribution though, um, the, the impact of, of migrants on, let's say, the culture versus the impact that migrants have on a country by voting in their political system, um, uh, h- how, how would you split that apart? Is, is the m- is mainly the impact we s- the cultural impact we see for migration due to the ability of migrants to vote or because they're just influencing the culture just by being there?

Garett Jones

I'll cheat a little bit because we don't get to run experiments on this, so I just have to kind of guess, uh, make an informed guess. I, I'm gonna call it 50/50. Um, so the way people, uh, the way citizens influence a country through formal democracy is important, uh, but citizens end up placing some kind of limits on the government anyway. And the people in a country are the, they're the folks who are gonna work in the firms and be able to either establish or not establish those complicated networks of exchange that are crucial to high productivity.

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