Losing The Nobel Prize | Dr Brian Keating

Losing The Nobel Prize | Dr Brian Keating

Modern WisdomFeb 11, 20191h 6m

Chris Williamson (host), Narrator, Brian Keating (guest)

BICEP2 experiment and the claimed discovery of primordial gravitational wavesInflation, the multiverse, and the cosmic microwave backgroundExperimental vs theoretical physics cultures and incentivesHow dust in our galaxy mimicked a Big Bang signatureHistory, purpose, and politics of the Nobel PrizePsychology of scientists: ego, ambition, humiliation, and meaningProposed reforms to the Nobel system and broader science culture

In this episode of Modern Wisdom, featuring Chris Williamson and Narrator, Losing The Nobel Prize | Dr Brian Keating explores cosmologist Brian Keating On Losing The Nobel And Loving Science Cosmologist and experimentalist Dr. Brian Keating recounts the rise and fall of the BICEP2 experiment, which appeared to detect primordial gravitational waves and seemed destined for a Nobel Prize before being overturned by better dust data. He explains the science behind inflation, gravitational waves, and the cosmic microwave background, and how a galactic dust signal mimicked the ‘smoking gun’ of the Big Bang. The conversation broadens into a critique of the culture and politics of modern physics, highlighting tensions between theorists and experimentalists and between collaboration and competition. Keating also dissects the Nobel Prize itself as an outdated, quasi-religious institution whose rules distort scientific incentives, and describes how losing his own Nobel chance reshaped his views on success and meaning in science.

Cosmologist Brian Keating On Losing The Nobel And Loving Science

Cosmologist and experimentalist Dr. Brian Keating recounts the rise and fall of the BICEP2 experiment, which appeared to detect primordial gravitational waves and seemed destined for a Nobel Prize before being overturned by better dust data. He explains the science behind inflation, gravitational waves, and the cosmic microwave background, and how a galactic dust signal mimicked the ‘smoking gun’ of the Big Bang. The conversation broadens into a critique of the culture and politics of modern physics, highlighting tensions between theorists and experimentalists and between collaboration and competition. Keating also dissects the Nobel Prize itself as an outdated, quasi-religious institution whose rules distort scientific incentives, and describes how losing his own Nobel chance reshaped his views on success and meaning in science.

Key Takeaways

Spectacular discoveries need equally spectacular skepticism and cross-checks.

BICEP2 was designed to see an inflationary signal, and when a strong signal appeared, the team focused on confirming that interpretation rather than aggressively trying to kill it with every possible alternative, especially foreground dust; this confirmation bias is a central lesson of the story.

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Experimental data can expose or constrain grand theories like inflation and the multiverse.

Keating stresses that building instruments (like BICEP2 or LIGO) is the only way to test ideas such as inflation and its implied multiverse, making experimental cosmology a crucial counterweight to unconstrained theoretical speculation.

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Galactic dust can perfectly mimic a cosmological ‘smoking gun.’

Magnetically aligned dust grains in the Milky Way produce the same B‑mode polarization pattern that inflationary gravitational waves would imprint on the cosmic microwave background, and limited access to Planck satellite dust data meant BICEP2 misattributed dust to the early universe.

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The Nobel Prize’s structure warps scientific behavior and recognition.

Alfred Nobel’s will specified a single person, a discovery from the previous year, and great benefit to mankind, but modern practice routinely violates all three; its three-person limit, bias toward certain fields, and exclusion of key contributors (especially women and deceased scientists) distort priorities and credit.

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Scientists are not purely rational; they are driven by ego, status, and fear of embarrassment.

Keating openly describes his own obsession with the Nobel, the humiliation he felt when BICEP2 was overturned, and how status incentives and groupthink inside physics resemble politics or entertainment more than the idealized image of dispassionate inquiry.

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Competition and secrecy can slow progress in fields that should be collaborative.

The Planck team’s reluctance to share crucial dust maps with BICEP2—motivated by competitive concerns over priority and potential Nobels—shows how information hoarding in science can lead to misinterpretation and delay collective understanding.

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Detaching self-worth from prizes can make scientific work more meaningful.

Losing his best Nobel opportunity eventually freed Keating from using awards as a yardstick for his career, allowing him to value the ongoing process—building new experiments, mentoring students, and expanding knowledge—over a ‘golden idol’ endpoint.

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Notable Quotes

We experimentalists are the bouncers in the nightclub of the universe.

Brian Keating

The journey is more important than the gilded destination.

Brian Keating

Science means knowledge, but that’s very different from wisdom.

Brian Keating

Ironically, all these scientists are atheists, but they worship this golden crucifix of an icon, the Nobel Prize.

Brian Keating

Physicists were people too.

Chris Williamson (reflecting on his conversation with Sabine Hossenfelder)

Questions Answered in This Episode

How could major collaborations like BICEP2 and Planck be structured to incentivize data sharing rather than secrecy when the stakes are Nobel-level discoveries?

Cosmologist and experimentalist Dr. ...

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What concrete reforms to the Nobel Prize (e.g., more awardees, posthumous prizes, institutional awards) would most effectively reduce its distortive impact on science?

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Given how well dust mimicked an inflationary signal, what would count as truly decisive evidence for cosmic inflation and a multiverse, if that’s even possible?

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How can young scientists realistically navigate ambition and ego without letting prizes or prestige dictate their research choices and sense of self-worth?

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Does the long stretch of slower theoretical breakthroughs in physics reflect limits of our theories, limits of our technology, or deeper limits of what science can access about reality?

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Transcript Preview

Chris Williamson

(wind blowing) Hi, friends. My guest this week is Professor Brian Keating and he almost won the Nobel Prize, and today we're going to find out just what it feels like to lose it. Uh, it's a really cool story. He set up the BICEP2 telescope in Antarctica, and it looked like him and his colleagues had made a unique discovery, and there was a rollercoaster of what actually happened and some disputes about the data and what it showed. There's politics from the Nobel Prize Association, and I didn't understand what it was or how it works, how it's chosen, and what the processes and the heritage of this particular organization are, but we're gonna find all of that out today. It's a very interesting story, albeit at the expense of Professor Keating. Uh, but if you enjoy this episode, go back and check out the ones with Sabine Hossenfelder and Professor Adam Frank. They're both fantastic physicists, and they have a lot to add to this discussion about the politics of science. Obviously, if you love the episode, please share it. It makes me very happy, but for now let's welcome Professor Keating. Oh yeah, P.S., I've started to shorten down the intros to these podcasts because I respect your time and I found myself skipping through a lot of the introductions to podcasts that I listen to as well. In future, I'm going to endeavor to keep them around about one minute. I think this should be enough time to tell you about the guest and inform you of any upcoming announcements which are important, but if you feel like you need to know more, or less, if you want me to chop it down even further and just say, "Hi, friends," then let me know @chriswillex on all social media.

Narrator

(music)

Chris Williamson

Professor Brian Keating, how are you today?

Brian Keating

I'm fantastic, Chris. Thanks for having me on.

Chris Williamson

Oh, it's an absolute pleasure. So, what are we gonna learn about today?

Brian Keating

Well, you know, I kinda sought out your podcast, so I don't know how usual that is, but I heard my friend, uh, Mario Livio on your show about two months ago, a month and-a-half ago, and the interview that you did was, uh, was phenomenal, and of course he's such an engaging and erudite fellow that I felt like it would be a good opportunity for me to share some of the ideas that I've been thinking about in my work as a cosmologist. As I point out, I don't do hair and nails, but I- I am a cos-

Chris Williamson

(laughs) Cosmetologist. (laughs)

Brian Keating

(laughs) Though a lot of people think I- I do until they meet me. Nor do I tell horoscopes but, uh, but in- instead what I look for is really the earliest evidence for the beginning of the universe, and what I thought is so interesting about the perspective that colleagues such as myself can provide in contradistinction to those of, you know, these erudite, brilliant folks you've had on like Mario, um, is that I'm an experimentalist. So an experimentalist as a- as a cosmologist, it doesn't mean that we build universes. Uh, I've got a healthy ego, but not quite that healthy, um, and to think that I could actually build the universe, but instead we build telescopes that will allow us hopefully to reveal the earliest, uh, evidence for what's known as the Big Bang, and how we came to know what the universe is comprised of, uh, along the way may hopefully be revealed through the types of telescopes that myself and my colleagues built. Uh, and this is very different from those of the professions, you know, as practiced by, uh, your- your, you know, late countrymen and my distant late colleague, uh, Stephen Hawking or- or, uh, Sir Roger Penrose who recently visited me in San Diego and, uh, was part of our podcast that we run for the Arthur C. Clarke Center here in San Diego. And that was- uh, that is, you know, to study the universe from a purely theoretical point of view is absolutely necessary, and I always say, you know, some of my best friends are theoretical physicists. But- but in reality we- we have, uh, learned much more about the universe, uh, from people that build instruments, whether it be Galileo or Newton or, you know, people that- that, uh, are connected deeply to instrumentation because there are very few theories in the world. If you think about it there, philosophically, there can only be so many different descriptions of how the- the actual world works, many fewer than how possible worlds could work, and I'll give you one example and maybe we'll talk about that at greater length today. Uh, for- uh, for those in the audience who may have heard of something called the multiverse, uh, this is a very controversial subject within physics and even philosophy and it really revolves around the notion of whether our universe is alone, whether ours is the only universe both that exists now or may have ever existed or may- will ever exist in the distant future. And that's quite an astounding thing to think about. Uh, it's motivated in some sense from the thought of people like Copernicus and Galileo who showed the Earth as just but one of many planets in the solar system. Uh, now we know there's but one of... The Milky Way is but one of many galaxies in the universe. So perhaps it's- m- it's natural to think maybe we're just the- not just the only universe in what's called the multiverse. So these are the kind of things we study but- uh, but in- in contrast to many other, you know, kind of more popular, maybe much smarter, uh, bet- better speakers than I- my- than I am, but, uh, these- these folks that, uh, study things from a purely theoretical perspective. It's just a different perspective I thought it would be great for your audience to get a taste of.

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