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The State of Apps with Olivia Moore

A few weeks ago, Apple released a stunning statistic: they’ve paid developers over $320B — yes, billion! — since the launch of the App Store in 2008, highlighting the cast opportunity in the marketplace. And around the same time, a16z Consumer Partner, Olivia Moore, compiled a list of the top apps across the US app store throughout 2022. In this episode, you’ll get to hear which apps made it to the top and what they have in common. Hint: the big winners were in social, but perhaps a new wave of social apps! We also get the scoop on what it really takes to not just hit #1, but stay there. This episode highlights numerous surprising examples ranging from a new-age Beanie Baby app, a viral talking dog, an app from 2012 that finally broke the top 10, and the Chinese app that’s been at #1 for a majority of 2023, and it’s not TIkTok! There are endless learnings about how new founders can take advantage of these opportunities. Timestamps: 00:00 - Top apps in 2022 03:23 - A new era of social? 06:55 - Hitting #1 08:57 - Staying on top 10:43 - Building a sticky product 13:29 - Growing an app in 2023 14:57 - User-generated growth 17:07 - 2022 category winners 20:00 - Anonymous social 21:37 - Early monetization 25:45 - Monetization trends 30:27 - Leveraging platform shifts 34:58 - Surprising hits 37:21 - Looking toward 2023 39:09 - Invisible AI products 41:19 - Limiting virality 44:43 - Vertical social networks 48:16 - When digital goes physical 51:19 - TikTok growth 53:01 - Geographic trends 55:33 - A decade old app 59:58 - App challenge Resources: * Follow Olivia on Twitter: https://twitter.com/omooretweets * Olivia's 2022 analysis: https://twitter.com/omooretweets/status/1605983056682045440 * Olivia's 2021 analysis: https://twitter.com/omooretweets/status/1483482099562602500 * Justine’s Boating app commentary: https://twitter.com/venturetwins/status/1616121691830390784 * Olivia’s Tinder subscription commentary: https://twitter.com/omooretweets/status/1616480480546942976 Apps mentioned: * BeReal: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/bereal-your-friends-for-real/id1459645446 * TikTok: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/tiktok/id835599320 * Gas App: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/gas/id1641791746 * Talking Ben the Dog: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/talking-ben-the-dog/id416345319 * Argo Boating Navigation: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/argo-boating-navigation/id1463869636 * NoteIt: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/noteit-widget-get-it-now/id1570369625 * Locket Widget: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/locket-widget/id1600525061 * LiveIn: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/livein-share-your-moment/id1606780589 * Slay: https://apps.apple.com/de/app/slay-komplimente-umfragen/id1645858841 * Lensa AI: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/lensa-photo-editing/id1436732536 * Starlink: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/starlink/id1537177988 * NOAA Weather: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/noaa-weather/id436760574 * Stardust Period Tracker: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/stardust-period-tracker/id1495829322 * Temu: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/temu-team-up-price-down/id1641486558 * SquadApp: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/squadapp-collection-database/id1623120952 * TravelBoast: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/travelboast-my-journey-routes/id1476504378 * Subway Surfers: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/subway-surfers/id512939461 Stay Updated: Find a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16z Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z Subscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/ Follow our host: https://twitter.com/stephsmithio Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

Olivia MooreguestSteph Smithhost

Feb 9, 20231h 3mWatch on YouTube ↗

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WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

Olivia Moore Decodes 2022's Number One Apps and 2023 Trends

Moore compiled the daily number one iOS app for all of 2022 and found BeReal, TikTok and Gas App at the top, with the top five all social products, several of them new, authenticity-focused apps.
Hitting number one takes roughly 100,000 daily US iOS downloads, and most number ones held the spot for under five days, so staying on top requires a retentive product with network effects and real-world hooks.
Early monetization has become viable, with examples like Gas App's reported $6 million in revenue from 10 million downloads and Lensa's estimated $20 million from $8 avatar packs, alongside new subscription pricing experiments.
Platform shifts such as iOS 16 widgets and open AI models like Stable Diffusion produced waves of fast-follower apps, and mobile-native execution beat earlier web-based competitors.
Looking to 2023, Moore points to Temu's early lead, invisible AI, founders limiting their own TikTok virality, vertical social networks, and growing international competition.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

A new, more authentic style of social is winning downloads

BeReal, Gas App and LiveIn emphasize candid, interactive moments with close friends rather than curated feeds. Moore notes Instagram and Snapchat likely absent because they have saturated the US user base.

Reaching number one is easier than staying there

Moore says TikTok virality can break an app into the top, but more than half of 2022's number ones lasted under five days. Staying power needs network effects and daily value.

Real-world hooks drive word of mouth

BeReal's simultaneous daily notification and Gas App's high school FOMO make usage visible to people around you, which Moore sees as powerful, lasting acquisition.

Apps can now monetize fast

Moore cites Gas App's roughly 10 million downloads and 6 million in revenue and Lensa's estimated $20 million in weeks. She suggests growing comfort with mobile payments, and says apps now get big and make money early.

Platform shifts reward fast followers, not just first movers

Many widget and AI art apps reached number one. Lensa beat earlier web-based avatar tools by being mobile-native and using push notifications to promote new styles.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

I think the opportunity maybe has never been greater to build and monetize a mobile app quickly, make a few million dollars, and retire if that's what you wanna do.

— Olivia Moore

So my view is it's in some ways easier to break into the top than it was five years ago, but it's probably actually quite a bit harder to stay at the top unless you have a very kind of magical and, and retentive product.

— Olivia Moore

I see word of mouth as kind of the purest maybe form, and most lasting if you can get it right, form of acquisition

— Olivia Moore

the arbitrage opportunity of these new platforms tends to go away over time.

— Olivia Moore

I don't go on TikTok because I am very well aware that TikTok's algorithm is better than my self-control.

— Steph Smith

Top apps of 2022New authentic social appsGetting to and staying at number oneViral growth and word of mouthEarly monetization and pricingPlatform shifts: widgets and AIInternational and unexpected hits

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