Holden Karnofsky — History's most important century

Holden Karnofsky is the co-CEO of Open Philanthropy and co-founder of GiveWell. He is also the author of one of the most interesting blogs on the internet, Cold Takes. We discuss: * Are we living in the most important century? * Does he regret OpenPhil’s 30 million dollar grant to OpenAI in 2016? * How does he think about AI, progress, digital people, & ethics? Highly recommend! 𝐄𝐏𝐈𝐒𝐎𝐃𝐄 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐊𝐒 * Transcript: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/holden-karnofsky * Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3Qi11SY * Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3CmZXav 𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒 00:00:00 - Intro 00:00:58 - The Most Important Century 00:06:44 - The Weirdness of Our Time 00:21:20 - The Industrial Revolution  00:35:40 - AI Success Scenario 00:52:36 - Competition, Innovation , & AGI Bottlenecks 01:00:14 - Lock-in & Weak Points 01:06:04 - Predicting the Future 01:20:40 - Choosing Which Problem To Solve 01:26:56 - $30M OpenAI Investment 01:30:22 - Future Proof Ethics 01:37:28 - Integrity vs Utilitarianism 01:40:46 - Bayesian Mindset & Governance 01:46:56 - Career Advice