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How did a few hundred Spanish soldiers topple two empires? – Si Sheppard

New episode with military historian Si Sheppard. The conquests of the Aztec and Inca empires might be the most shocking events in human history. Hernan Cortés and some hundreds of Conquistadors landed on a new continent they knew basically nothing about, and within 2 and a half years, conquered the 6 million strong Aztec empire. Then, a decade later, Francisco Pizarro did the same thing to an Incan Empire of some 10 million inhabitants. In both cases, the Conquistadors consistently beat native armies while being literally 100x (or even in some cases 1000x) outnumbered - and in many cases, did so without taking a single casualty. And they did this with 99% of their military forces being made up of the very natives they were trying to subjugate. We often forget how wild human history is. People talk about AI takeover as if it would be some crazy, unprecedented sci-fi outcome. But this would not be the first time an alien force whose motives the defenders barely understand use more advanced technology and diplomatic cunning to outmaneuver and then take over a much larger and long established existing order. 𝐄𝐏𝐈𝐒𝐎𝐃𝐄 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐊𝐒 * Transcript: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/si-sheppard * Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/si-sheppard-how-did-a-few-hundred-spanish-soldiers/id1516093381?i=1000792593373 * Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1fN4B8vugGzaJPcj2yQ2fq?si=WPdtkqugT3mKFDefrh3-KQ 𝐒𝐏𝐎𝐍𝐒𝐎𝐑𝐒 * Jane Street’s intern projects are even more ambitious than I realized. One intern spent his summer researching LLM memorization, figuring out how to quantify and reduce it. This matters because, when Jane Street tests their models on historical data, they need to know that performance reflects predictive power, not just memorized outcomes. Another intern spent his time developing a new activation checkpointing scheme: his custom version ended up outperforming PyTorch’s native one. If you want to read about more 2026 intern projects or apply for Jane Street’s 2027 internships, go to https://janestreet.com/dwarkesh * Grok Bot can tackle the tasks you’ve been meaning to handle but just haven’t gotten around to. For example, SpaceXAI recently gave Grok Bot access to their procurement contracts, vendor spend, and usage data: it ended up identifying over $100,000 in potential savings for them. I decided to try this on my own spend, and Grok Bot found over $5,000 of savings for me, even though I run a pretty small team. Try it out yourself at https://x.ai/bot * Antithesis solves one of the biggest problems with traditional software testing: to test for a bug, you first have to be able to imagine it. Antithesis runs your system through thousands of parallel histories and steers your tests for you, injecting faults and generally trying to make everything as adversarial as possible. That way, your software gets tested against scenarios you’d never imagine but that could still arise in the real world. Learn more at https://antithesis.com/dwarkesh To sponsor a future episode, visit https://dwarkesh.com/advertise. 𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒 00:00:00 – Cortés’s conquest of the Aztecs 00:22:39 – Pizarro’s conquest of the Inca 00:26:59 – Explaining Conquistador military superiority 00:34:39 – Could the natives have beat the Conquistadors? 00:48:56 – The Aztecs and Incas did not learn from each other 00:56:11 – Why Spain still lost in the long run 01:07:47 – Why didn’t the Aztecs/Incas adapt better to European warfare? 01:14:16 – Conquistador motivation 01:26:22 – Why Mughal India also couldn't play the Europeans off each other 01:33:42 – Diplomacy was just as important as technology

Dwarkesh PatelhostSi Sheppardguest
Oct 1, 20261h 37mWatch on YouTube ↗

At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

Cortés and Pizarro won by decapitation, coalitions, and shock advantages

  1. The conversation reconstructs how Cortés and Pizarro toppled the Aztec and Inca Empires by capturing emperors, exploiting internal divisions, and leveraging small but decisive military advantages.
  2. It emphasizes that the Spanish battlefield edge was driven more by horses, steel, and inherited Old World doctrine (plus psychological shock) than by early firearms.
  3. A central theme is coalition warfare: most of the troops fighting for the Spanish were indigenous allies seeking revenge or liberation from imperial domination.
  4. The episode explores why native societies struggled to adapt fast enough and why they could not play Spaniards off against each other as effectively as Europeans exploited native rivalries.
  5. The discussion closes by linking conquest to the origins of globalization through silver flows, explaining Spain’s inflationary ‘resource curse,’ and comparing imperial dynamics to later cases like British India.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

The conquests were “decapitation strikes” against highly centralized empires.

Cortés (and later Pizarro) didn’t need to defeat millions directly; they needed to destabilize the imperial “command node.” Capturing Moctezuma and Atahualpa created a governance vacuum the Spaniards could exploit through puppetry, intimidation, and selective violence.

Horses + steel mattered more than guns; shock and doctrine amplified the gap.

Steel weapons/helmets, cavalry shock, war dogs, and Old World military traditions produced outsized battlefield effects—often more psychological than purely lethal. Early firearms were noisy and frightening but tactically limited due to slow reloads and inaccuracy.

Spanish victory depended on coalition-building with native enemies of the empires.

The Spanish “armies” were overwhelmingly indigenous, drawn from peoples resentful of Aztec/Inca domination (e.g., Tlaxcalans, Totonacs; later various Inca subject groups). Many allies believed they were using the Spaniards to settle regional scores and improve their bargaining position.

The natives adapted—but too slowly under extreme disruption.

Both Aztec and Inca forces experimented with countermeasures—flooding terrain to bog cavalry, adapting captured weapons, improvising pikes, using bolas, rooftop fighting, and learning to ride. But the learning curve was steep and time was short amid political collapse and demographic shock.

European “intra-bloc” disputes were easier to reconcile than inter-ethnic imperial grievances.

Spanish leadership repeatedly turned internal Spanish conflict into advantage through persuasion and incentives (e.g., Cortés absorbing Narváez’s arrest force). By contrast, indigenous polities struggled to overcome deep, long-running rivalries to form a unified anti-Spanish front.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

If you allow this man inside your house, he will take your house away from you.

— Si Sheppard

I speak for the mighty Charles V, the Holy Roman Emperor." Of course, Charles V had no idea who Hernán Cortés was. Cortés, again, is just winging it, the incredible improvisation here.

— Si Sheppard

There's a saying in Peru that Atahualpa was planning to have Pizarro for lunch, but Pizarro ended up having him for breakfast.

— Si Sheppard

The conquistadors themselves admitted the night before that encounter, there were so many campfires from the Inca Army scattered across the hills surrounding Cajamarca, it looked like the twinkling of stars at night.

— Si Sheppard

Cortés himself admitted as much to, to Moctezuma's envoys. He, he said, "My men and I suffer from a disease of the heart that only gold can cure."

— Si Sheppard

Cortés’s march inland and Tlaxcalan allianceSeizure of Moctezuma and control through puppetryLa Noche Triste, Otumba, and return to siege warfarePizarro at Cajamarca and capture of AtahualpaHorses, steel, doctrine, and psychological shockIndigenous coalition warfare and subject-peoples’ incentivesDisease, demography, and long-run imperial fragmentation cycles (resource curse, globalization)

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