“This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape

1. 0:00 – 5:28

   Is Political Violence America’s #1 Threat?

   1. CWChris Williamson0:00

      People of the UK and Ireland, if you want to come and see me live, tickets are very limited for my live tour this October, but they are still available. Dublin is already sold out. However, if you're a fan of Modern Wisdom, if you love psychology, philosophy, human nature, personal development, and you want to hear stories that I definitely can't tell on the internet, then come and see me live this October. chriswilliamson.live has got all of the tickets. Dublin is completely gone, but there are limited tickets everywhere else. I'll see you soon. chriswilliamson.live. We discussed this recently on the debate, but I wanted to give it a full treatment because I think this topic will-- feels very critical to the current conversation. What is the number one threat to America, in your opinion?

   2. RPRobert Pape0:37

      The number one threat to America is not from a foreign government, even Iran. It's not from a fringe militia group. It's from tens of millions of Americans who support political violence. Once you have support for political violence lodged in the mainstream of society, this changes everything.

   3. CWChris Williamson1:04

      Is this a new era of political violence?

   4. RPRobert Pape1:07

      It's a new era. It's an era I call violent populism, because I want to explain that we have had almost every year since the founding of our country, 250 years, some type of political violence, some type of militia group, an assassination attempt here or there. That's not what we are living through now. This is a new paradigm. This is a different world. Now, it has happened a few times before. Uh, I'm sure we'll talk about this in the 1920s, the 1960s. But as for almost everybody listening to this show, we are in an era of historically high political violence and historically high support for political violence that will change the election that we are about to go through in ways we may not really be prepared for.

   5. CWChris Williamson2:09

      How unprecedented is this? Because I don't know, I, I think back to the Vietnam War, and there were protests around that. That felt like civil unrest domestically. And prior to that, there's been all manner of... I mean, there was a civil war not even that long ago, right?

   6. RPRobert Pape2:24

      Well, the Civil War, 1860, let's just remind ourselves that that is a long time ago, 100 and, uh-

   7. CWChris Williamson2:32

      You're talking to someone with a country that's thousands years old, you know what I mean?

   8. RPRobert Pape2:35

      Well, okay. So maybe, [chuckles] maybe from your perspective-

   9. CWChris Williamson2:37

      Talking about the Battle of Hastings

   10. RPRobert Pape2:38

       ... it was just the other day.

   11. CWChris Williamson2:40

       Yeah.

   12. RPRobert Pape2:40

       But, um, for Americans, that is a long time ago. And the 1960s, um, we need to recall that that was over 65 years ago, so that's a long time ago. And that means that although there will be a few of us baby boomers who were born, I'm right at the tail end of the baby boom generation. So there will be a few of us who were born. Um, but even I can't really recall personally-

   13. CWChris Williamson3:07

       Hmm

   14. RPRobert Pape3:07

       ... the 1960s because I was just way too young. So the fact is, yes, there have been precursors and other eras of violent populism where you have s- a whole spate, waves of assassination attempts, waves of violent protests, uh, and side by side with that, large millions and tens of millions of Americans supporting political violence. But it is actually a historical anomaly in our country. It is not simply the same as it was 10 years ago or the same as it was 15 years before that. But the big picture here is that we are in an era where we have experienced not one, not two, but three assassination attempts against, uh, Donald Trump, um, two when he was running for president, one when he was president. Uh, this, these three are just a small number of the many assassination attempts and assassinations that we have seen over the last five years. You have to recall the assassination attempt against Nancy Pelosi, missed her, but almost killed her husband. Brett Kavanaugh, that's a US Supreme Court justice. Uh, Josh Shapiro, um, the arsonist burned down large parts of his house while his family was sleeping in the house, including him. Uh, he was governor, he's governor of, uh, Pennsylvania. Just literally a year ago and two days, so we're speaking on, um, uh, September 12th, but on September 10th, 2025, Charlie Kirk, um, a major political activist, a, a podcast host beloved by tens of millions of Americans, was assassinated while he was, um, having one of his quite frequent debates, debating people on a college campus. So these, this, this, uh, this only touches the assassination attempts, Chris.

   15. CWChris Williamson5:21

       Hmm.

   16. RPRobert Pape5:22

       We haven't even talked about the, uh, violent protests as part of the George Floyd

2. 5:28 – 6:49

   Populism vs Violent Populism: What’s the Difference?

   1. RPRobert Pape5:28

      protests in the summer of 2020.

   2. CWChris Williamson5:30

      Hmm.

   3. RPRobert Pape5:30

      Where, yes, most of the George Floyd protests were peaceful, but five to 7% of them were not. And when you have 28 million Americans engaged in the summer of George Floyd protesting, five to 7% is a terrifically large number. And we could go on and on, January 6, etc.

   4. CWChris Williamson5:54

      What is... How is violent populism different from ordinary populism?

   5. RPRobert Pape6:00

      Ordinary populism, you can think of as political polarization, you can think of as peaceful protests. Violent populism is where you have mass support for political violence in the body politic. So the difference between populism, where you have many millions of people, tens of millions of people who are upset about the establishment. They believe the establishment has, uh, largely locked them out of many benefits that are their just due.

   6. CWChris Williamson6:35

      Mm.

   7. RPRobert Pape6:35

      Uh, that's the ordinary understanding of populism. Well, that's an understanding that can be completely peaceful. It can generate, um, wholesale changes of political parties. It can bring

3. 6:49 – 14:44

   How Much Do Americans Support Political Violence?

   1. RPRobert Pape6:49

      new people into politics. Violent populism is a different animal. Violent populism is taking a lot of that, um, anger in the mainstream, and it is transforming into political violent anger-

   2. CWChris Williamson7:08

      Mm-hmm

   3. RPRobert Pape7:08

      ... where there's support for political violence, which is going to then encourage actual political violence.

   4. CWChris Williamson7:15

      What are the numbers around how supportive Americans are of political violence?

   5. RPRobert Pape7:20

      So for the last five and a half years, um, at my center, the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats, we have conducted 20 national surveys of support for political violence in the United States. Uh, the book goes through all of them. Uh, the book, though, doesn't cover the most recent survey, which we literally just completed, uh, in the field 10 days ago, which means we just got the data six days ago, which means I'm revealing it here on your show for the first time in front of anybody. [chuckles] Nobody else knows what this data is on support for political violence. What we are seeing is a, uh... in the data, is a not a normal election coming. What we're seeing is a cycle that I call America's domestic escalation trap, where whoever loses in the midterms, we are likely to see not just simply passive acceptance or even peaceful protests. We are likely to see violent protests, whoever loses, that may be larger than January 6th. And I say that, Chris, not just to be alarmist, but it's because of the data, and that data is literally screaming at us.

   6. CWChris Williamson8:50

      Mm.

   7. RPRobert Pape8:50

      So we fielded a nationally representative survey of support for political violence in the United States, as we have done. This is our 21st, so we've been doing this, um, every three or four months for the last five years. And the numbers jumped off the charts compared to what we have seen before. So what do I mean by that? We ask questions such as, "Do you support political violence to remove President Trump from the presidency or to prevent President Trump from being president?" Um, that is the anti-Trump or anti-MAGA-

   8. CWChris Williamson9:29

      Mm-hmm

   9. RPRobert Pape9:29

      ... political violence.

   10. CWChris Williamson9:30

       Mm-hmm.

   11. RPRobert Pape9:31

       Normally, we would see several years ago, uh, 6% of the American public support, uh, anti-Trump political violence, maybe 9%. In, uh, September 2025, just before Charlie Kirk was assassinated, it was 14%.

   12. CWChris Williamson9:52

       Mm.

   13. RPRobert Pape9:52

       Already fantastically higher. That's over 30 million Americans, just to put that in numbers. What did we find this year, the next year, that we just really... The, the, the numbers just literally came in off the presses? 25% of American adults support the use of force to prevent President Trump from being president. That equates to 65 million American adults. That's 44% of all Democrats, uh, self-identified as Democrats in our survey. This is a stunning number, Chris. This is not just another turn of the, uh, of the data, and the data doesn't bounce all over the place in case people think, oh, it's just randomness in the data.

   14. CWChris Williamson10:44

       Mm.

   15. RPRobert Pape10:45

       Also, we know what those numbers mean more than just with check boxes. So Chris, we have conducted over the years focus groups. We have, uh... and I mean hours-long focus groups. Uh, think of them as like a podcast, like what we're doing here, [chuckles] uh, except with 70 people, done with a, a, a European moderator. Um, so it's helpful to have a European moderator, [chuckles] so it produces a, a little bit less bias on the part of the, uh, people involved in the focus groups. But more than, more than that, we've also done further what are called survey experiments to understand what people really mean when they say the use of force is justified to prevent Trump from being president. And what we found is 55% of the time they mean assassinating President Trump with rifles as the attempt that, uh, failed at Butler. So they say this in so many words when you push them. Uh, now not everybody, uh, but 55%. So just keep in mind, that's a, that's a, uh, uh, that's a very healthy number. Uh, so when I say, um, uh, 25% support the use of violence, this is not, oh, they just mean yelling at President Trump. Um, there's others beyond that 55% that mean having a January 6th style demo- a Democratic, uh, riot like January 6th, but it's a- among Democrats.

   16. CWChris Williamson12:10

       Hmm.

   17. RPRobert Pape12:10

       Um, so there's a, um, uh, that use of force phrase that we have, Chris. Y- now, we also have... Uh, before we just only focus on the, uh, p- support for political violence on the left. At exactly the same time-

   18. CWChris Williamson12:25

       I was gonna say, like, w- what is the split between Democrat support for political violence and Republican support for political violence?

   19. RPRobert Pape12:30

       Yeah. So let's still stick with pro-Trump, anti-Trump.

   20. CWChris Williamson12:33

       Okay.

   21. RPRobert Pape12:33

       Because this is the best way. We have lots and lots of questions, but this is a good way to capture this. So we also ask questions about, um, the pro-Trump support for political violence. Um, and in particular, since Trump has become president, and notice there is support f- uh, there has been Democratic protesters, we like the question, do you, uh, support President Trump using the U.S. military to suppress Democratic protesters? Now, he has not done that yet, but using the military to suppress Democratic protesters is a very violent way to suppress, uh, Democratic protesters. 16% of Americans, almost all of them, of course, Republican, 16% of Americans support President Trump's use of the military to suppress Democratic protesters. That is, um, a 40 mil- approximately 40 million Americans. So you put these two numbers together, the anti-Trump po- su- support for anti-Trump political violence and support for pro-Trump political violence, and what do you end up with? 100 million Americans supporting political violence as we are running into the midterms. This portends that the midterms will be the most dangerous elections in our lifetimes. I don't mean just literally on the day of the midterms. I don't mean at the ballot box. There may well be, uh, uh, issues. Uh, j- exactly. It will be first and foremost about the counting of the vote and then seating the, quote, "winner"-

   22. CWChris Williamson14:27

       Hmm

   23. RPRobert Pape14:27

       ... in January. Just as it was in 2021 on January 6, that the actual violence related to the November 2020 election was not on the election day, November 2020. It wasn't

4. 14:44 – 20:28

   Is Political Violence Coming From the Right or Left?

   1. RPRobert Pape14:44

      even in December. It was literally on the day that Congress was going to certify the winner, and that happens in Congress again in Ja- on this year. Most likely the day will again be, Chris, January 6, 2027.

   2. CWChris Williamson15:07

      Hmm.

   3. RPRobert Pape15:08

      Again, a Wednesday.

   4. CWChris Williamson15:10

      It seems to me like the political violence at least that you focused on so far is anti-Trump and then anti-anti-Trump?

   5. RPRobert Pape15:17

      Very much so.

   6. CWChris Williamson15:18

      Kind of a fair way to frame it?

   7. RPRobert Pape15:19

      Very much.

   8. CWChris Williamson15:20

      A lot of the time when I've heard-

   9. RPRobert Pape15:21

      Excellent

   10. CWChris Williamson15:21

       ... some of this data that's been put out recently, uh, the FBI or the CIA say that the single greatest domestic threat to America comes from the right, not from the left. What about right-leaning threats that are, like, initiatory rather than reactive?

   11. RPRobert Pape15:37

       So those studies, which I go through in detail, um, those studies that you just quoted were right until 10 years ago. [laughs] So it's very important to understand, Chris, that it, it's... You need to, we need to lift the hood on some of the headlines that are often used as clickbait to get the, uh, um, uh, a lot of attention on the studies.

   12. CWChris Williamson16:04

       Yeah. W-

   13. RPRobert Pape16:04

       Once you lift the, once you lift the hood, you will see that the studies that say most of the political violence is coming from the right, and then the other counter studies that say, "Oh, no, no, it's coming from the left."

   14. CWChris Williamson16:19

       Hmm.

   15. RPRobert Pape16:19

       Once you lift the hood and actually go through the annual data p- point by point, you will see that they come to almost exactly the same conclusions, and what they're, uh, where they disagree is where's their starting point? Do they start in 1990 or 1980? In which case, absolutely true. If you start in s- let me just pick 1990. If you go for 35 years, from 1990 to 2025, and you say in that 35-year period of time, um, of the lone wolves, and that's what we're talking about, 'cause they don't usually include at all January 6th or George Floyd. They're not counting the violent crowds at all in these studies. They're just focusing on lone wolf violence. The truth is, yes, it would be over that 35-year period, a majority from the right.

   16. CWChris Williamson17:11

       Hmm.

   17. RPRobert Pape17:12

       If you started in 2015, absolutely, it's going to be m- it's gonna be maybe not a majority from the left, but very heavily balanced left and right.

   18. CWChris Williamson17:22

       Hmm.

   19. RPRobert Pape17:23

       And so the truth is that it's a matter of the, uh, the timeframe, and what does that mean? That means the nature of political violence in our country has changed over the last 10 years.

   20. CWChris Williamson17:38

       Hmm.

   21. RPRobert Pape17:39

       We're not in the same era we were in in the 1990s. We're not in the same era we were in after, uh, 9/11 from 2001 to 2005. Um, we are in a new era. That is why I gave it a name, violent populism, and that new era dates pretty much to the beginning of President Trump's first term and- Much of the violence since then, not 100%, of course-

   22. CWChris Williamson18:08

       Mm

   23. RPRobert Pape18:08

       ... but much of the violence, as you correctly said, is either pro-Trump or it's sort of anti-anti.

   24. CWChris Williamson18:15

       Yeah.

   25. RPRobert Pape18:15

       So you had a nice way to really see that as President Trump came into office, he represented a tremendous, uh, angst about a certain set of social changes-

   26. CWChris Williamson18:30

       Mm

   27. RPRobert Pape18:30

       ... that I'd like to explain. But just as he was representing angst about those social changes, there were others who felt increasing angst that Trump was gonna reverse those changes-

   28. CWChris Williamson18:43

       Yep

   29. RPRobert Pape18:43

       ... and send them back.

   30. CWChris Williamson18:44

       Mm.
5. 20:28 – 23:52

   Violent Populism Across the Political Spectrum

   1. CWChris Williamson20:28

      and Neutonic. Because when it comes to converting browsers into buyers, they are best in class. Their checkout's 36% better on average compared to other platforms, and with Shop Pay can boost conversions by 50%. So upgrade your business and get the exact same checkout that we use at Neutonic with Shopify. You can sign up for a free trial period by going to the link in the description below or heading to shopify.com/modernwisdom. That's shopify.com/modernwisdom. Is there a difference between the style of violent populism on the right and on the left?

   2. RPRobert Pape20:58

      Well, they certainly like to say there is. [chuckles] So I spent a lot of time, Chris, studying political violence on the right and the left. I study the perpetrators of political violence on the right and the left. I study, uh, the detailed cases of the three would-be assassins of President Trump. Uh, you can look at Luigi Mangione. We can look at the, uh, the assassin who killed, uh, Hortman. She, she was a key leader in Minnesota, and then also her husband literally assassinated her. And so I w- I, I spend lots of time doing that because before I did this book, Chris, for 20 years, I studied terrorism. I s- I compiled all the suicide terrorist attacks around the world after 9/11. That's over 18-- 8,000 individual cases of suicide attacks. So I'm very familiar with studying the individual perpetrators of terrorist attacks, including the most deadly in the world.

   3. CWChris Williamson21:55

      Mm.

   4. RPRobert Pape21:55

      Um, and also tracking, uh, their manifestos, what they say, how much the manifestos reflect, uh, personal grievances versus social grievances. And so what you see, and I don't mean to paint a moral equivalence on the right and the left, but in terms of basic operations, uh, how they, uh, relate to the mass support of political violence, uh, in the country, there's a lot of symmetry. There's a lot of symmetry between the right and the left. Um, the key thing that most people don't know about political violence is that mass support fundamentally changes the scale of political violence you can expect in a country, and this is-

   5. CWChris Williamson22:47

      Mm

   6. RPRobert Pape22:47

      ... happening in the United States, but it's not unique to the United States. It's true in Northern Ireland in the 1970s and '80s. It's true in Lebanon in, uh, other periods of time. So what we're experiencing in the United States, we have specific, uh, social changes that are unique to what's occurring in the United States. But the basic pattern here that I'm trying to explain of once you have mass support for political violence-

   7. CWChris Williamson23:13

      Mm

   8. RPRobert Pape23:13

      ... this matters because it nudges volatile individuals who are volatile for their own psychosocial reasons. Yes, many of them have personal pain. Many of them have personal issues.

   9. CWChris Williamson23:27

      Mm.

   10. RPRobert Pape23:27

       Um, but what it does is when they, uh, there's mass support for political violence, it nudges those volatile individuals over the edge because they have an additional motive for carrying out the political violence, which is social approval.

   11. CWChris Williamson23:46

       Mm.

   12. RPRobert Pape23:46

       They can expect that when they carry out their violence, there

6. 23:52 – 36:06

   How Peaceful Protests Turn Violent

   1. RPRobert Pape23:52

      will be approval by many, many, many pe-

   2. CWChris Williamson23:56

      You definitely saw this with Luigi Mangione, I think, like canonical example.

   3. RPRobert Pape24:00

      Canonical example, and it's also in the age of people ask, "Well, is this all a product of social media?" Social media matters, but it's like pouring gasoline on an underlying fire.

   4. CWChris Williamson24:13

      Yeah.

   5. RPRobert Pape24:13

      And what's the gasoline? You can see the social approval almost instantly.

   6. CWChris Williamson24:18

      I, I'm interested in what happens if you spread out from individual actors. I understand that if you're an assassin, one person trying to kill another person or successfully killing another person, that's a big deal. It tends to be kind of great men of history inflection points. It might get a lot of headlines, but when we're talking about mass support for mass political violence, if you're using numbers in the tens of millions or hundreds of millions-

   7. RPRobert Pape24:39

      Yeah, yeah

   8. CWChris Williamson24:39

      ... this is not going to be 100 million individual assassins.

   9. RPRobert Pape24:43

      It-- Exactly.

   10. CWChris Williamson24:43

       But as of yet, I haven't heard you really talk about folding in the rioters. What does it look like? January 6th was-

   11. RPRobert Pape24:50

       That-

   12. CWChris Williamson24:50

       ... a lot of fucking people.

   13. RPRobert Pape24:51

       That's a-

   14. CWChris Williamson24:52

       Uh, uh, George Floyd was a lot of people.

   15. RPRobert Pape24:54

       So we have seen over the last, uh, since the summer of 2020, we have seen three main instances of collective political violence in the United States. Um, some went on for a period of time, some were just one day. So the first was the summer of 2020 with George Floyd, and, uh, the... Starting with at the end of May when George Floyd was killed and the, uh, uh, video of his death went viral, uh, there were in the top over 100 cities in the United States, almost daily protests, and those went on for months, Chris. At my, uh, research center, the, uh, sh- University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats, we tracked on a daily basis all of the, uh, protests, both peaceful and violent, in the top 50 cities every single day-

   16. CWChris Williamson25:48

       Hmm

   17. RPRobert Pape25:48

       ... during that, uh, during that summer. And what you saw was that most were peaceful. That's absolutely true, but there was a very clear pattern, which was the peaceful protests would start usually in the afternoon, often at about 1:00, and usually at a downtown area or a downtown square. And then it would go on, it would usually go on through, uh, the early evening, at which point a lot of times the, uh, protest, uh, uh, conveners, the people who started the protest, they just wanted everybody to just, just go home. But that's not what happened. Most people went home, but a lot of people stayed, and that's when the violence happened, when the sun went down. So you could see a very, very, very clear pattern, uh, here, and this is maybe not a, absolutely 100%, but oh my goodness, nine... It's, it's, it's, it's stunning when you see this on a daily basis in 50 cities in America, how, um, what starts as a peaceful protest effectively has, Chris, splinter groups-

   18. CWChris Williamson26:47

       Yeah

   19. RPRobert Pape26:47

       ... which splinter off. They're the ones who are burning down police stations. They're the ones who are, uh, destroying, um, uh, the, uh, the businesses and so forth. B- And so you have, for the, that summer of 2020, you have tens, you, you probably have 20 million, 25 million Americans who legitimately think that they were there and it was truly a peaceful protest-

   20. CWChris Williamson27:12

       Yeah

   21. RPRobert Pape27:12

       ... because they went home.

   22. CWChris Williamson27:13

       They just went about their-

   23. RPRobert Pape27:13

       They just went home.

   24. CWChris Williamson27:14

       Yeah.

   25. RPRobert Pape27:15

       But that didn't end [chuckles] when they went home.

   26. CWChris Williamson27:18

       It's gotta be highly frustrating if you are a genuinely peaceful protester that wants to go out-

   27. RPRobert Pape27:22

       Oh, my gosh

   28. CWChris Williamson27:23

       ... and, and, you know, hold the sign and do the thing during the day, and then the headline that's used by the side you're trying to protest against-

   29. RPRobert Pape27:31

       Yeah

   30. CWChris Williamson27:31

       ... is not peaceful protest, it's the small number of people that then continued it on into the night.
7. 36:06 – 43:27

   How Widespread Is Violent Populism?

   1. CWChris Williamson36:06

      and FBI sniper teams. The, the good sniper teams, not the bad ones. Also They have a no questions asked refund policy, so if you don't like it for any reason, they'll just give you your money back. Plus, they offer free shipping in the US. Right now, you can get a free sample pack of LMNT's most popular flavors with your first purchase by going to the link in the description below or heading to drinklmnt.com/modernwisdom. That's drinklmnt.com/modernwisdom. What's the percentage that you equate from January 6th? You said five to seven from some of the more left-leaning protests. What's the percentage or the equivalent percentage?

   2. RPRobert Pape36:39

      Well, I would say... Well, the, well, the-- Once we had the 120,000-

   3. CWChris Williamson36:44

      Yep

   4. RPRobert Pape36:44

      ... and then we have, uh, um, 10,000 that were actually surrounding the Capitol.

   5. CWChris Williamson36:49

      Uh-huh.

   6. RPRobert Pape36:49

      Um, and that's the real number I would put at, say, about 10% or 8%.

   7. CWChris Williamson36:55

      Right.

   8. RPRobert Pape36:56

      And then the others who actually burst in, the, the roughly 1,600, it is just a fraction of the, uh-

   9. CWChris Williamson37:03

      Yep, yep

   10. RPRobert Pape37:03

       ... uh, of the others. Um, but what I would say is that, uh, there really is, uh, if, um, when you watch the videos of how this unfolds, um, it, it becomes, uh, pretty clear, to me anyway, as somebody who has studied operations, that had the police not simply let them in, had the police really decided to stand there and fight... I mean, they already got beat up. Almost 200 of them went to the, to the hospital.

   11. CWChris Williamson37:28

       Hmm.

   12. RPRobert Pape37:29

       Uh, five committed suicide afterwards, but almost 200 went to the hospital. So had they decided to literally stand and fight to death to prevent them from coming in, I think there's a good chance you would've had many more than the 1,600 come in. 'Cause I think what happened is that, um, once you had that, that burst through, uh, breaking the doors, breaking the windows, actually burst their way in, uh, I think a lot of, uh, a lot of folks were just happily to content, and whether they decided they might have gone in later or not, they were just happy to let that first phalanx go through. But had there been actual resistance to that, more than there was, I think this could have actually been a lot worse than what we saw on January 6th. The third, um, are the, uh, protests that happened on college campuses after October 7th. So we need to remember that we have just come through, not just a few days or a few weeks, but almost an entire year from, um, October 7, 2023, through the end of spring 2024, of a variety and waves of violent protests on college campuses, um, where college, um, protests... This is on the left. Uh, so we, we also-- I also conducted large-scale surveys of over 5,000 college undergraduates, 5,000 ordinary adults, um, uh, right in the middle of this period to really understand the nature of those protests, who was protesting, what their identity was, to the extent they would tell you on a survey, and so forth. Um, and so again, to get deep dives into this, and what you saw was a similar wildfire on the left, um, uh, that you saw with George Floyd, except not as violent. So just to be very, very clear, um, the George Floyd protests were ex- were extremely violent when it came to property damage, literally burning down police stations, burning police cars, destroying businesses. Uh, with the campus, um, uh, protests, the, the fact is they weren't-- The, the ones who stormed into the classrooms, who, who went into the libraries, it was pretty scary. If you were a, um, a student there, and we have this in the surveys and also text boxes where people wrote in what their feelings were, they were pr- the, the students were pretty scared of what happened because they didn't know how violent it was gonna get. But as a fa- as a matter, it wasn't as violent as the George Floyd protests, but nonetheless, it's another instance of violent populism. When I say the era of violent populism, um, and I'm, I'm not only describing lone wolf assassinations and assassination attempts, I'm also describing, um, uh, the large instances of collective political violence. And what's special about this era-

   13. CWChris Williamson40:36

       Mm

   14. RPRobert Pape40:36

       ... our era of American violent populism is it's occurring on both the right and the left. When we look at the 1960s, it's almost all violent populism on the left. Um, when we look in the 1920s, it's almost all on the right. So in this era today, what's special is not just that we're living through it. That's, that's of course what's really [chuckles] impactful for, for, uh, for us here, is, uh, but also that it's happening on both the right and the left. And the truth is, the right and the left don't like to admit [chuckles] how much, uh, violence is happening on their side.

   15. CWChris Williamson41:16

       Mm-hmm.

   16. RPRobert Pape41:17

       Uh, and I know because, um, I've been in the media on all those sides over the last five years talking about this, and, uh, I can tell you that, um, uh, it-

   17. CWChris Williamson41:28

       Everyone wants to finger point at the opposite side as opposed to their own

   18. RPRobert Pape41:31

       They, they... And I wanna, and I wanna say that, um, you said everyone does. There's a temptation to do that. Many do like to finger point only at the other side. There have been instances and, and a growing number of instances, I wanna point out, where you might not expect you would get more balance. And it's just very important, um, to see that it is heavily divided, just as you would expect in this era of violent populism. Uh, because if tens of millions of Americans are supporting violence for the political goals they support-

   19. CWChris Williamson42:06

       Hmm

   20. RPRobert Pape42:07

       ... they're also going to tend to excuse it Because they support that violence, so they're going to tend to excuse it. They're not going to want to admit it, or they're gonna wanna, uh... And, and it's really, um, you can almost see the stories that are written. So if there's a, um, a lone wol- Let's just focus on lone wolf. If there's a lone wolf attacker who is attacking a Democratic target, uh, right away people will assume, "Well, that must be someone who's leaning pro-MAGA or pro-Republican."

   21. CWChris Williamson42:36

       Mm.

   22. RPRobert Pape42:36

       And then also the reverse. Well, what are the news stories? Usually, the news stories are literally the same structure, which is the more left-leaning media, if the attacker is, uh, coming from the left, will talk about mental illness, will talk about [chuckles] uh, things other than the poli-

   23. CWChris Williamson42:54

       Will minimize their own side and accuse the other. Yeah

   24. RPRobert Pape42:56

       ... the political motive. What about the, uh, right-wing media when the attacker the other wa- Almost exactly the same. So you, you can al- you can... Chris, you can almost change, take the same formula story, and now I think with ChatGPT, it's literally that easy to do. [chuckles]

   25. CWChris Williamson43:12

       It's pretty formulaic.

   26. RPRobert Pape43:12

       Right? It's pretty formulaic, and just put in the different names.

   27. CWChris Williamson43:16

       I'm interested-

   28. RPRobert Pape43:16

       But it's not 100%. I just wanna be clear that, that in, in the show we're on now, you're, we're talking about both sides. Uh, over the last year and a half, uh, I have

8. 43:27 – 48:57

   What Does a Political Violence Supporter Look Like?

   1. RPRobert Pape43:27

      seen real effort here by, uh, certain organizations to try to do more to talk about both sides. I've seen effort by certain political leaders to try to talk about both sides.

   2. CWChris Williamson43:38

      Mm.

   3. RPRobert Pape43:38

      They don't get as rewarded as much for it. They don't get as rewarded, and nonetheless, many of them are still going down that road, Chris. That's something that we should look at and just notice.

   4. CWChris Williamson43:53

      What do we get wrong when we imagine the archetype of someone who supports political violence?

   5. RPRobert Pape43:57

      Oh, absolutely.

   6. CWChris Williamson43:57

      What are these people like?

   7. RPRobert Pape43:58

      Absolutely. There's a standard, uh, stereotype that our data totally shatters, just completely, and, and it basically hasn't been true for the last five or six years as this stereotype has, has come out. Um, but the standard stereotype is that, uh, the person is unemployed, the person is rural, the person is part of a militia group, um, and, uh, they're usually male, and they're usually between, say, 18 and, um, 24, 25 years old. Uh, and that stereotype, by the way, was true from 1990 to about 2014 or so, 2015. But that stereotype started to change under when President Trump came into office, but oh my goodness, did it change with, uh, the Jan 6, uh, the, the collective political violence that we have, um, that we have just been talking about. So the new stereotype, Chris, before I go into examples, are essentially well-educated, middle-class Americans, nice homes, and a 401 [k] , and they wear a suit and tie. That is your standard insurrectionist. [chuckles] That's whether you're, you're... Or social justice warrior. Um, uh, if we pick, uh, Luigi Mangione, just to put some concrete examples on this, uh, this is someone who's coming from generational wealth. This is not an unemployed, [chuckles] this is not unemployed.

   8. CWChris Williamson45:29

      Yeah.

   9. RPRobert Pape45:29

      This is somebody who went to prep s- uh, prep high schools. This is somebody who went to Ivy League, uh, uh, Penn, University of Pennsylvania. Um, this is somebody who got to live a very nice lifestyle in Hawaii. Um, if we look at, uh, the most recent, um, uh, of the... We can look at all three Trump a- a- assassin, would-be assassins, but let's just look at the most recent one, which is, uh, uh, which is in, uh, in April. His name is Cole Allen, 31 years old, highly educated, uh, engineer. Um, this is somebody who, uh, in his manifesto, he is explaining that he feels called to the duty to respond to all the social injustices that are happening on the part of, uh, the Trump administration, and, um, the Jan 6 profile is, is especially telling here. So I went through all 1,575 of the individuals who, um, uh... And what was stunning, and we have pictures of their actual professional jobs, not just what the violence they were doing in the Capitol. What was stunning are the 45% who are business owners, um, who are, um, uh, doctors, who are gynecologists, who are nurse practitioners. Uh-

   10. CWChris Williamson46:46

       A lot of gynecologists at January 6th?

   11. RPRobert Pape46:48

       Well, several. Several. But-

   12. CWChris Williamson46:49

       They were definitely investigating a small hole, so, yeah.

   13. RPRobert Pape46:51

       Well, that may... [chuckles] Well, okay, I'm not gonna make the... I'm gonna leave... You're the podcast guy-

   14. CWChris Williamson46:56

       Ah

   15. RPRobert Pape46:56

       ... so I'm gonna let you do that one.

   16. CWChris Williamson46:57

       Yeah.

   17. RPRobert Pape46:57

       But the, but what I'm pointing out is that, is that, uh, we h- uh, on January 6, the media right away ran to a narrative of, uh, these are, um, silly people wearing silly hats.

   18. CWChris Williamson47:14

       Yep. Yep.

   19. RPRobert Pape47:15

       They are-

   20. CWChris Williamson47:16

       They're not serious

   21. RPRobert Pape47:16

       ... militia group members. Only, only 10% were members of militia groups, and this isn't just hand-wavy understanding. You see, when you go through the court process, you are indicted, and then nearly all of those 1,575 were actually, uh, sentenced.

   22. CWChris Williamson47:34

       Mm-hmm.

   23. RPRobert Pape47:34

       What people may not know, who don't do this professionally for a living, is when you go all the way through the court system and you get to sentencing, your whole background, whether you're a militia group me- all of that comes in at sentencing. So all of that-

   24. CWChris Williamson47:47

       It's a very s- uh, sophisticated profile.

   25. RPRobert Pape47:50

       Oh, for sure, because how do you know how recidiv- the, the risk of recidivism-

   26. CWChris Williamson47:55

       Yeah

   27. RPRobert Pape47:56

       ... for an individual when you're going to sentence them, unless you don't have, uh, all of that background? And with the January 6th-ers, since they were being, um, uh, most of the investigations were being done by the FBI, there was plenty of manpower to go and actually collect their detailed profiles.

   28. CWChris Williamson48:12

       Mm-hmm.

   29. RPRobert Pape48:12

       So when I give you these backgrounds, um, we have high, high confidence of these, of their backgrounds, and the point is These are people... Notice all of these different individuals that I'm talking about, these are people with something to lose.

   30. CWChris Williamson48:28

       Right.
9. 48:57 – 56:01

   How Do Ordinary People Become Radicalised?

   1. RPRobert Pape48:57

      of Texas. So we could take the, uh, the, all the num- We could literally give you a map and show you where all of the Jan sixers who came from Texas came from-

   2. CWChris Williamson49:06

      Yeah

   3. RPRobert Pape49:06

      ... by their actual residence, 'cause you have to have that information, and you would see they're in the nice suburbs around Dallas. They're in the nice suburbs around, um, Austin. Uh, they are not in, uh, well, very few anyway, are around the panhandle of Texas.

   4. CWChris Williamson49:22

      Why would someone with a career, or a family, or a house, or an education, a lot to lose, risk everything for politics? If these people are from such nice backgrounds previously, if, if you've got nothing to lose, it seems like an easier trade to go and invade the capital or set a police, uh, station on fire, or try and assassinate the president. Why would somebody that's got something to lose go so far and risk a lot in the sake of politics?

   5. RPRobert Pape49:45

      Because they think they're about to lose it all in the next couple of years. What is happening, Chris, is that we are going through a set of social changes in the country that are putting large swaths of the public on pins and needles about what's going to happen to them and people like them when the other party wins. Because when the other party wins, the other party has been zeroing out benefits for their side. So we have this unbelievable pollution disaster in East Palestine, Ohio. This is MAGA country. Uh, this is, uh, I am born in Erie, Pennsylvania. That's just on the other side of where, um, uh, this, this area of Ohio is. Uh, so I'm from Western Pennsylvania. I went to, uh... And what you... And, and what did you see? You, you saw virtually no Democratic leaders, certainly not President Biden, show up to actually show sympathy, and there were months of story after story after story of all of the problems there. And then if you look at, uh, what, um, people on the Democratic side of the aisle think when Republicans come in, they think Republicans are gonna take away their vote because Republicans are constantly looking for ways to zero out birthright citizenship, and maybe they couldn't get it through this time, but maybe they'll get it through the next time. So if you look at both sides, and you see this in our data, both sides of very well-off people are petrified that when the other side wins, the other side is gonna take away their nice life, or their future, or the future of their kids.

   6. CWChris Williamson51:33

      How does a normal person become radicalized then?

   7. RPRobert Pape51:37

      It's, uh, I'm not... It's, it's a matter of think of it as a group. You're not being... Uh, the individual at, uh, person is gonna be, uh, radicalized to take violence as an individual or as part of a mob where the mob is like a wildfire. I was just explaining, it's kind of, uh, starting peaceful, and then over the period of hours escalates into something that's violent. But when you talk about the support for political violence, that's a, that's a different story. When you talk about the... That is the normalization of political violence is a cascading phenomenon-

   8. CWChris Williamson52:15

      Mm

   9. RPRobert Pape52:15

      ... unless there's actual pushback by political leaders.

   10. CWChris Williamson52:20

       Okay. So i- to try and m- use my bro science summary, both sides are increasingly worried about the, about what the opposition is going to do to the future of the country and their ability to reverse the changes to the future of the country-

   11. RPRobert Pape52:37

       Exactly

   12. CWChris Williamson52:37

       ... to get into power, to get back into power.

   13. RPRobert Pape52:39

       Exactly.

   14. CWChris Williamson52:39

       Because you've got this smoldering furnace, there is immediate communication 24 hours a day, which allows the most inflammatory comments to be self-selected using social media and pushed to the top, and then this increases the preparedness for both sides to say, "We are okay with increasingly extreme measures in support of our political goals and in, uh, defense against the opposite side's political goals."

   15. RPRobert Pape53:07

       That's right. And there-

   16. CWChris Williamson53:07

       Is that, like, a fair summary of where we're at?

   17. RPRobert Pape53:08

       That's a fair summary. And Chris, the only thing to point out is there's little pushing back on that. So notice-

   18. CWChris Williamson53:15

       Even if people don't endorse political violence, people... Oh, that's an interesting stat.

   19. RPRobert Pape53:19

       So-

   20. CWChris Williamson53:20

       So how many people, uh, that don't endorse their own side's political violence are in the silent few that don't-

   21. RPRobert Pape53:29

       Yes

   22. CWChris Williamson53:29

       ... object to their own side's political violence?

   23. RPRobert Pape53:32

       Yeah. So, so, so, so we have, in our surveys, we have routinely 65%, 70% of Americans who abhor political violence.

   24. CWChris Williamson53:43

       Mm-hmm.

   25. RPRobert Pape53:43

       They are the silent majority, Chris.

   26. CWChris Williamson53:46

       Mm.

   27. RPRobert Pape53:47

       But they don't have a good vehicle to express that.

   28. CWChris Williamson53:53

       Mm.

   29. RPRobert Pape53:54

       We have been tracking this for years, and so you might think that, oh, there's a political leader who would run for president, and what's their number one thing they're gonna run on? Ending political violence in America.

   30. CWChris Williamson54:09

       Mm.
10. 56:01 – 1:03:24

    Does Supporting Political Violence Make It More Likely?

    1. RPRobert Pape56:01

       grow. And I'm just pointing out that it's not because they're the minority.

    2. CWChris Williamson56:06

       Hmm.

    3. RPRobert Pape56:06

       It's they're a silent majority, meaning that there hasn't been created the natural vehicles, the natural leaders in order to vocalize that. But this is truly, uh, the missing weapon against the, the, the rise of violent populism that we're experiencing in our country.

    4. CWChris Williamson56:26

       Yeah, I understand. There's two things that I'm trying to separate out here. One is sentiment-

    5. RPRobert Pape56:32

       Mm-hmm

    6. CWChris Williamson56:32

       ... and the other is action.

    7. RPRobert Pape56:33

       Mm-hmm.

    8. CWChris Williamson56:34

       So it seems to me that a lot of what we've been talking about so far is the support for people using political violence, either in support of their own political desires or against the other side's political desires. How much does the normalization and support in what is still a minority, right? Around about overall 25%-

    9. RPRobert Pape56:55

       Yeah

    10. CWChris Williamson56:55

        ... 30% or so of people support that. Is-- What are the indications that the normalization of the support of political violence actually leads to political violence?

    11. RPRobert Pape57:06

        So, so-

    12. CWChris Williamson57:06

        Because that's not necessarily true.

    13. RPRobert Pape57:08

        It-

    14. CWChris Williamson57:09

        That doesn't necessarily track

    15. RPRobert Pape57:10

        ... what you need is a focal point to bring that normalization of political violence into concrete action.

    16. CWChris Williamson57:21

        Hmm.

    17. RPRobert Pape57:22

        This is what I mean by a wildfire analogy. This is what I said earlier when I was explaining, um, uh, what we're heading toward with the American domestic escalation trap, this cycle I'm about to explain. But let me start by explaining it with a wildfire before we get to the political violence. How does a wildfire happen? You have masses of dry wood, combustible material-

    18. CWChris Williamson57:49

        Mm-hmm

    19. RPRobert Pape57:49

        ... and then you have a spark.

    20. CWChris Williamson57:51

        Some bastard with a cigarette

    21. RPRobert Pape57:53

        A cigarette, a cigar butt. They walk away. That-- think of that as the focal point. So that is how you get a wildfire. You can have that mass of material, that dry wood. It can sit there for months and months and months. You might even go through a whole year and not have actual wildfire. But once you have a lightning strike, once you have that cigar butt thrown out, the fact you had months and months of nothing, that doesn't stop it because it goes up like that.

    22. CWChris Williamson58:20

        Hmm.

    23. RPRobert Pape58:20

        That's the issue with normalization of political violence.

    24. CWChris Williamson58:23

        So, and does normal-

    25. RPRobert Pape58:24

        And that's what you saw, that's what you saw on January 6th. So you had a buildup-

    26. CWChris Williamson58:29

        Uh-huh

    27. RPRobert Pape58:29

        ... of mass support thinking that the election was stolen, uh, a lot of anger. And what happened on literally January 6th and at the Ellipse during President Trump's speech, the focal point, which was the trigger and the spark that turned that mass of combustible material into action.

    28. CWChris Williamson58:51

        So is there, in your research, a suggestion that people who are in support of political violence are also more likely to enact political violence themselves?

    29. RPRobert Pape59:04

        Y- y- to the extent we can track that, yes, but I want to just point out-

    30. CWChris Williamson59:08

        'Cause that's what-- to me, that's what's important, right? It's, yes, the, the support of political violence is, uh, crucial because it's a, a temperature check for what's happening in society at large. But you could have 100% of support, and you could still have zero actions, right? Just being in support of something-
11. 1:03:24 – 1:06:14

    Are Violent Extremists or Their Sympathisers Worse?

    1. CWChris Williamson1:03:24

       could wipe your ass for you, it probably would, and it adjusts automatically every week based on how you're actually progressing. For me, following a proper evidence-based plan has made a massive difference, and if you're serious about training, it'll do the same for you too. Right now, you can get up to $50 off the RP Hypertrophy app by going to the link in the description below or heading to rpstrength.com/modernwisdom and using the code MODERNWISDOM at checkout. That's rpstrength.com/modernwisdom and MODERNWISDOM at checkout. Do you think the main problem is violent extremists or the people that sympathize with them?

    2. RPRobert Pape1:03:54

       Oh, the people sympathize with them by far.

    3. CWChris Williamson1:03:58

       Hmm.

    4. RPRobert Pape1:03:58

       By far. Violent populism-

    5. CWChris Williamson1:04:01

       Think that would be surprising to most people to hear.

    6. RPRobert Pape1:04:03

       Well, it may be, and it might make them feel uncomfortable because when they, you know, joke at the coffee, you know, when they're at the coffee maker at the office and they're saying, "Yeah, we gotta get those Trump assassins better, uh, better shooter training."

    7. CWChris Williamson1:04:15

       Yeah.

    8. RPRobert Pape1:04:15

       Uh, this is effectively support for political violence, Chris. They may not like to accept that. They, they, they probably will feel uncomfortable hearing this. But the fact of the matter is that when, um, uh, there is mass support for political violence, uh, this translates into actual political violence. This is true domestically. So, uh, if we break out of the American context, when we look at Northern Ireland, the, uh, Irish Republican Army that conducted decades of terrorism in Northern Ireland, you can see immediately as public support for political violence among Catholics in the fall of 1969, we actually have the opinion poll data here. As it actually grows, that's what, uh, gives birth to the IRA. The I... It's not the other way around. It's the IRA is responding to-

    9. CWChris Williamson1:05:07

       Hmm

    10. RPRobert Pape1:05:07

        ... the public support for political violence. Coming back to the American case in the 1960s, we have the Weather Underground, which is a group, uh, of anti-war protesters, uh, from the 1960s who break off, and then they form, uh, literally a terrorist group, an American terrorist group, and conduct over 20 bombings to protest, with the bombings, they thought of it as protests, the Vietnam War Well, they too are responding to the perceived, uh, uh, what they perceive as this huge amount of community support. And how do we know that? They wrote books about it. They detail it, they explain this. They explain how, in fact, one of the things that they, uh, that as The Weather Underground evolves over time, is after they do about 20 or so of the bombings, um, they start to write that they're just surprised there's not more following in their wake. They're, they're, they're... They thought there was gonna be much more support for their po- their actual violence-

    11. CWChris Williamson1:06:12

        Hmm

    12. RPRobert Pape1:06:12

        ... and then they're disappointed

12. 1:06:14 – 1:19:06

    Is Violent Populism Exclusive to America?

    1. RPRobert Pape1:06:14

       that there's not as much coming as they were expecting. So you can see in their calculations, their thinking-

    2. CWChris Williamson1:06:22

       Right

    3. RPRobert Pape1:06:22

       ... that support for political violence animating them, and one of the reasons they just go out of business on their own is, um, of course the Vietnam War ends, but also they just come to see that there just weren't many takers for that violence. That didn't stop, though, 20 instances of bombing.

    4. CWChris Williamson1:06:40

       Right now, is this violent populism something that's exclusively happening in America, or is this a trend that we're seeing that's sweeping across the world?

    5. RPRobert Pape1:06:49

       So it's starting in other mature democracies. Uh, so it hasn't got- gotten as much traction in other democracies. Uh, and I don't mean other, um, immature democracies. So we're-- When we study political violence around the world, we're used to studying political violence in, say, authoritarian countries or countries that were a democracy for a few years, they kind of transitioned from authoritarianism to democracy, and then they slid back. Um, that's the usual group of countries that we used to think about, uh, political violence in. That's not what I'm... When I'm answering your question, I'm talking about Canada, I'm talking about Germany, I'm talking about Britain, I'm talking about France, just to be very, very clear. Uh, and what we saw are the beginnings of this in other countries. In, um, Germany, for example, uh, we saw around the time, uh, just before we, we had January 6 in our country, there was a similar storming of the Reichstag in, uh, Berlin. Uh, many Americans don't even know about that because they just weren't focused on, on Germany. Well, the Germans were, and when I was conducting this research, the chancellor of Germany in September 2022 flew me to Berlin for an entire week in the chancellery, meeting with every single top leader of, uh, the CDU, his party, and also, um, that, that's, that's like, uh, the defense min- I mean, every single top person, multiple times, by the way. Um, and then also leaders of other parties as well. For example, I went to the parliament to meet with the Green Party, uh, for long sessions as well, to go through all of the detailed, uh, analysis here. And that, I am told, uh, because I didn't go back six weeks later, but I'm told that played a powerful role in rolling up the plot, um, to assassinate the chancellor, um, it, six weeks later.

    6. CWChris Williamson1:08:45

       Hmm.

    7. RPRobert Pape1:08:45

       So that they headed off a big assassination plot that was underway.

    8. CWChris Williamson1:08:49

       Hmm.

    9. RPRobert Pape1:08:50

       I've also worked with the Canadian government, I've worked with the British government, because the social changes that are underneath what's occurring in violent populism in the United States, um, are occurring in other mature Western democracies. They're occurring a little bit of a lag, a little bit later. And, um, so maybe now is a good time to... We haven't had a chance to really talk about the key social drivers of this. So, so there are really two social drivers, Chris, of violent populism in the United States, and then the Iran war is making it worse. So the biggest driver of violent populism is, in the United States are, is a demographic shift. For the first time in our country's 250-year history, the United States is transitioning from a white majority democracy to a white minority democracy. Um, this, um, in 1990, we were 76% non-Hispanic white as a population. Today, we're 57% non-Hispanic white. In about 15, could be 20 years, depending on deportations, and now you can see why deportations matter so much, uh, is when we'll be 49%-

    10. CWChris Williamson1:10:10

        Hmm

    11. RPRobert Pape1:10:10

        ... non-Hispanic white as a people. Now, that demographic shift, just to be clear, this is all happening now in this tipping point generation. It's not the case, um, if you look back all the way to 1776. We have been essentially between 80 and 85%, uh, uh, white as a people, going all the way back in that period of time. So it's not like this has ebbed and flowed.

    12. CWChris Williamson1:10:37

        Hmm.

    13. RPRobert Pape1:10:37

        Well, this demographic shift is of tremendous political importance, Chris, because it dramatically, uh, impacts which of the political parties are gonna win. The Republican political party is much more heavily white than the Democratic Party. Uh, it dramatically influences the composition of those parties. It explains the meteoric rise of President Trump on his issue of immigration, and why when President Trump came down the escalator in 2015, talked about immigration, he almost instantly rose to the top. And then within six or nine months, he had knocked out just about every one of the other Republican leaders who were on the other side of his immigration issue. Jeb Bush, number one. Um, and this has been his signature issue, uh, and now it's morphed into deportations. Because what this represents, not for every Trump voter, but for a large fraction of Trump voters, what Trump, who Trump represents first and foremost, is stopping, if not reversing, this demographic shift.

    14. CWChris Williamson1:11:49

        Hmm.

    15. RPRobert Pape1:11:50

        Now, at the same time- There are many people on the left who see the rise of President Trump, Donald Trump, and the MAGA movement, and the rise of immigration and what that means for the demographic shift. They want to keep the shift going, Chris. They want to accelerate the shift. They may-

    16. CWChris Williamson1:12:09

        How many of these people do you think know the implication of more non-white people in my country means more voting people either against my cause or for it?

    17. RPRobert Pape1:12:17

        What we have in our data is the ability to correlate stuff like that. So with our opinion survey, the key, key thing that matters more than anything else, Chris, is that if you are worried America is, uh, uh, whites in America are being deliberately replaced by the Democratic Party, if you worry about that-

    18. CWChris Williamson1:12:41

        Mm

    19. RPRobert Pape1:12:41

        ... you're not just more likely to vote for Trump, you're four times more likely to support political violence for Trump.

    20. CWChris Williamson1:12:48

        Mm.

    21. RPRobert Pape1:12:48

        Four times more likely. If you are, if you believe America is a racist country and always has been, which is kind of the mirror image on that, on that question, uh, you are two and a half times more likely not just to vote Democrat, but to support political violence against Trump. So this issue of the demographic shift, it's not just loosely connected with violent populism. It goes right to the core of what's occurring in our country, and it explains the period of violent populism, why it's occurring now and not 30 years before or 30 years from now.

    22. CWChris Williamson1:13:32

        'Cause it could have just been people not wanting to see their culture change. It could be people not wanting house prices or-

    23. RPRobert Pape1:13:41

        In the '90s, culture wars were sort of not wanting to see culture change.

    24. CWChris Williamson1:13:47

        Mm.

    25. RPRobert Pape1:13:47

        Now, you're at the tipping point generation. But there's a second social change, Chris, and this gets to your point on housing, uh, economics. Side by side with this demographic shift has been a mass wealth shift to the top 1%. This starts in the late 1980s. Um, in, uh, the late 1980s, about, uh, the top 1% controlled about 17% of America's wealth. That's a lot, but still 17%.

    26. CWChris Williamson1:14:20

        Yeah.

    27. RPRobert Pape1:14:20

        Uh, today, uh, at least as, as of two years ago, that's the most recent data, it's 26%. What does that mean? That means the bottom has lost all that money. So when you are, um, going to buy a house, when you're going to pay rent for an apartment, you suddenly have a negative pie over the last 30 years. You're not gaining ground from where your parents were. You're losing ground from where your parents are. I call this, this wealth shift to the top 1% putting the rest of us in a negative sum society, where we're suddenly worse off economically with each passing year. Now, what does that mean? That means the people who have are worried they're gonna have less and less and less, and that also means that that combines with the demographic shift. So you have a situation where with the demographic shift, you're worried the other party is gonna get in power, and what are they gonna do? They're gonna help their own, and they're gonna take even more from you.

    28. CWChris Williamson1:15:37

        Mm.

    29. RPRobert Pape1:15:38

        And both sides think that. So it's almost a mirror image, Chris. So they are, um, uh... We live in a world where in the mainstream, those that have are increasingly worried they're going to lose over time.

    30. CWChris Williamson1:15:56

        Mm.
13. 1:19:06 – 1:21:17

    Why We Should Be Worried About the Midterms

    1. CWChris Williamson1:19:06

       and you can too. Find Athletic Brewing Co.'s best-selling lineup at grocery or liquor stores near you, or best option, get a full variety pack of four flavors shipped direct to your door right now. Get 15% off your first online order by going to the link in the description below or heading to athleticbrewing.com/modernwisdom using the code MODERNWISDOM at checkout. That's athleticbrewing.com/modernwisdom and MODERNWISDOM at checkout. Near beer terms and conditions apply. Athletic Brewing Company, fit for all times. How worried are you about the midterms?

    2. RPRobert Pape1:19:34

       Oh, uh, easily, um, way more than 50%. This is way too dangerous. So the, the, the rise of the mass sentiments, Chris, that we've seen in our data, um, we, uh... When, when this happened, um, a year ago, so in, uh, June 2025, uh, we had the Hortman assassination, uh, and I published a big piece in The New York Times that we're on the brink of a period of major political violence. It's about to occur. And I warrant that if, uh, based on the, um, uh, sentiment data that we had then, which is not as bad as now, it's, it's... But we had then was already very worrisome, that we had to worry that, uh, we would have assassination attempts, uh, against people on the right, and that we would have President Trump use, um, uh, military-style immigration enforcement in cities like Chicago, and then it later became Minneapolis. And then what happened just three months later, Chris, we had the Charlie Kirk assassination. We had Operation Midway Blitz in Chicago, and we had Metro Blitz in Minneapolis. Basically, all those concerns that I laid out in that Janu- June, um, middle of June 2025 op-ed literally happened just a few months later. And what you hear today is the, the, uh, the sentiments here for political violence are much higher, and you're hearing a similar set of warnings by me here today, which is we are really on the brink of the most dangerous elections in our lifetimes, and there's no signs of any pushback

14. 1:21:17 – 1:25:12

    Would Political Violence Be Different If the Democrats Had Won in 2024?

    1. RPRobert Pape1:21:17

       of this by our political leaders.

    2. CWChris Williamson1:21:19

       Mm.

    3. RPRobert Pape1:21:19

       You hear almost no political leaders, uh, being concerned about political violence occurring, certainly not by their own constituents. To the extent you hear about political violence, the leaders are perfectly happy to call out the other side. But unless the leaders will restrain their own constituents, you get the cycle that I'm describing.

    4. CWChris Williamson1:21:43

       Do you think this situation of political violence would be worse or better if the Democrats had won in 2024?

    5. RPRobert Pape1:21:49

       Um, I'm not sure how much it would have changed, Chris, because it's a function of the social changes. I, I know people wanna believe that if only their side won, [chuckles] everything would be fine. That's not what this book is telling you, and maybe that's a frustration because people just wanna hear, "Oh, yes, just the Democrats just win, then we're all hunky-dory, or if the Republicans win, we're all hunky-dory." That's not what's occurring. What's occurring is the two social changes I just laid out for you. We are continuing to go through a demographic shift in our country from a white majority democracy to a white minority democracy, which is going to have profound effects on our two political parties and who will win future elections. We also are continuing to have wealth shifts go to the top 1%.

    6. CWChris Williamson1:22:40

       Mm.

    7. RPRobert Pape1:22:40

       Uh, it's not true that we are, um, uh, restraining our billionaires. Uh, essentially, both parties are perfectly happy restraining the other side's billionaires.

    8. CWChris Williamson1:22:52

       Mm.

    9. RPRobert Pape1:22:53

       But we don't have, um, demonstrated, uh, evidence that the, uh, each party will actually, um, uh, reverse course and start to truly change the wealth shift to their own billionaires.

    10. CWChris Williamson1:23:08

        The support of economic violence as opposed to sort of physical violence. I guess w- w- in your predictions, why was there not a concern about a prediction of a right-wing assassination of a Democratic politician? Uh, the... Your, your concern was-

    11. RPRobert Pape1:23:26

        Oh, well, no, there cur-- There was in the fall of 2022. We... This was exactly... So, so there's just more to tell you about this.

    12. CWChris Williamson1:23:34

        Yeah.

    13. RPRobert Pape1:23:34

        So literally in the fall of 2022, um, I am warning key authorities about, uh, the rise of possible assassination attempts against Democratic leaders, uh, and then the Pelosi attack happened just a few weeks later. So literally, th- th- this pattern that I keep pointing out to you where we're doing these surveys, Chris-

    14. CWChris Williamson1:23:55

        Mm

    15. RPRobert Pape1:23:55

        ... um, and the surveys are tracking the sentiment and support for political violence in the United States. And I'm taking seriously, because of my knowledge studying, uh, political violence all around the world, that this is a pivotal ... factor in whether that violence will occur. It's not just a trivial factor.

    16. CWChris Williamson1:24:17

        Hmm.

    17. RPRobert Pape1:24:17

        It's a pivotal factor.

    18. CWChris Williamson1:24:18

        Hmm.

    19. RPRobert Pape1:24:19

        And then, um, uh, and there are chapter and verse instances where I've warned, and I've warned about it when the viol- the, the sentiments go up in a s- on one side.

    20. CWChris Williamson1:24:30

        Hmm.

    21. RPRobert Pape1:24:30

        Uh, and so... And that is with, uh, national sheriffs associations, um, uh, political leaders in Washington, DC. Uh, so this isn't just a matter of, um... What you're seeing now is me talk about this in the public, and normally... Uh, so the last time I was on, I told you I advised every White House since 2001. Um, so that's multiple, uh, Democratic White Houses, multiple Republican White Houses. Uh, what you're seeing with Professor Pape over the last, uh, year or so, six months for sure, is now talking, uh, to, um, the public in general through social media.

    22. CWChris Williamson1:25:07

        Right.

    23. RPRobert Pape1:25:08

        Basically laying out, um, uh, as

15. 1:25:12 – 1:32:43

    Civil Unrest: Self-Generated Or Manufactured By Enemies?

    1. RPRobert Pape1:25:12

       much detail as I would normally be presenting in those private meetings. The only difference is in the private meetings, you really need a 30, 40-page detailed slide presentation where you're gonna answer every single one... You, you have brilliant questions, Chris. Believe me, when you get inside those closed-door rooms, uh, here, it's like, um, uh, a bunch of bees stinging you from all different directions, and you better have every single answer nailed down.

    2. CWChris Williamson1:25:38

       Yeah. How much of the domestic civil discord do you think is self-generated, and how much could be encouraged or manufactured by America's enemies?

    3. RPRobert Pape1:25:49

       It's hard to know for sure. Um, we had, uh... The best studies of this were actually done, um, at the University of Cambridge, uh, in the aftermath of Trump's victory in 2016 and '17 because this was when the real... There was a huge concern was, uh, Russia manipulating the election for Trump. If so, how? And, uh, Russia did have an internet research agency it was called, um, and this is out of St. Petersburg. Another... We, we know, like, the location of it, which was dedicated to actually, uh, influencing, um, and polarizing American attitudes on social media. So, uh, there's certain, a set of scholars at the University of Cambridge, your listeners can go and, and we can... They can go find this with this information, and they will discover that it appears to have been modest. That is not trivial, but not overwhelming. So what appears to have happened, and what you can do as a foreign government, is it appears as if you can take issues of this, uh, this violent populism, the social change issues, and you can magnify them, say, 10 or 20%.

    4. CWChris Williamson1:27:06

       Hmm.

    5. RPRobert Pape1:27:07

       But it doesn't look possible to make them up out of whole cloth. At least that's what we have... That's, that's what the science of this has shown so far. Maybe we'll see in the future this may change. I understand AI is coming, but what I'm telling you is up until now, the reason I say, uh, we are our own worst enemies-

    6. CWChris Williamson1:27:27

       Hmm

    7. RPRobert Pape1:27:27

       ... and not it's China manipulation or Russia manipulation-

    8. CWChris Williamson1:27:31

       Hmm

    9. RPRobert Pape1:27:31

       ... is not because I haven't looked for China and Russia manipulation. It's that, uh, to the extent we can actually test it in a social scientific way to see w- how much it has actually moved the needle, it appears to be relatively modest.

    10. CWChris Williamson1:27:45

        You know there's that line about whether there's aliens in the universe, and they say there's one of two explanations, and both are equally terrifying. One is that we're alone in the universe, and the other is that we aren't.

    11. RPRobert Pape1:27:54

        Yeah. Yeah.

    12. CWChris Williamson1:27:54

        I think about that when it comes to civil unrest-

    13. RPRobert Pape1:27:56

        Yeah

    14. CWChris Williamson1:27:56

        ... domestically, that there's two explanations. One is that this is, uh, curated, germinated, seeded, manufactured, catalyzed by some foreign power, and the other is that the home nation is just turning around and kicking the ball into its own goal-

    15. RPRobert Pape1:28:13

        Well, let me-

    16. CWChris Williamson1:28:13

        ... over and over and over again

    17. RPRobert Pape1:28:14

        ... let me give you a real test of this because your listeners will all have been on social media in the last four or five months, and they will know the Legos videos that Iran has made. So I assume you know what I'm referring to.

    18. CWChris Williamson1:28:27

        I have no idea what you're talking about.

    19. RPRobert Pape1:28:28

        Oh my gosh. Okay.

    20. CWChris Williamson1:28:29

        Can we pull this up, JB? Can we, uh-

    21. RPRobert Pape1:28:30

        Yeah. Can we just get some of the Legos videos here?

    22. CWChris Williamson1:28:32

        Iran Lego.

    23. RPRobert Pape1:28:34

        Iran, Iran on social media-

    24. CWChris Williamson1:28:36

        Lego videos

    25. RPRobert Pape1:28:37

        ... they- they're Lego... They're, they're called the Lego videos by the, the cluster by, uh... And, and what you'll see is that, um, especially in March and April, uh, Iran made many, many, many videos, um, uh, that were, uh, embarrassing for President Trump, uh, showing he was, he was, like, falling down on his butt all the time or, or constantly slipping on a banana peel or he couldn't-

    26. CWChris Williamson1:29:04

        Yeah

    27. RPRobert Pape1:29:04

        ... he would, he would try to get into meetings, uh, and he would keep getting thrown out because, uh, the allies didn't want him, things like that.

    28. CWChris Williamson1:29:11

        Right.

    29. RPRobert Pape1:29:11

        So, so what they were trying to do, what Iran was clearly trying to do... This was almost, I mean, surely state-sponsored by Iran, [laughs] was trying to manipulate American opinion about the Iran war, okay? So that's what I'm trying to tell you. So yes, let's call up some of these Legos videos-

    30. CWChris Williamson1:29:30

        Yeah
16. 1:32:43 – 1:35:46

    Who Benefits From America’s Civil Unrest?

    1. RPRobert Pape1:32:43

       evidence. And even medium movement of the public by foreign powers, much, much, much, uh, less than you would think. And the Iran war legacy videos is a perfect example of that because they're literally not moving the key constituency you would have to move to move the war. It's the MAGA constituency that Trump cares about. So if you don't move MAGA, you're not really moving Trump.

    2. CWChris Williamson1:33:09

       Which foreign powers do you think benefit the most from America's civil unrest?

    3. RPRobert Pape1:33:15

       Um, oh, without a doubt, it's going to be Russia and China for sure. Um, and it's because the more that we are internally conflicted, uh, uh, the more that, uh, we're a house divided, uh, to pick one of Abraham Lincoln's phrases, um, the more that we will just not be paying hardly any attention or bad attention or make bad mistakes about, uh, international affairs. Because we will just... Our attention span will just be so consumed by what's happening domestically. And I do believe this is one of the issues, uh, that the White House has with the Iran war, which is, uh, as much as the Iran war is, um, probably the... It's, in our opinion surveys, it's, it's certainly one of the, the top issues with the economy. Um, I think that for the White House, um, they have just been very, very focused on, um, politics, uh, which have been very intense in our country, but that's what's consuming a lot of President Trump's behavior. That's why he's talking about things like the ballroom and what he... Th- this is... These are issues, not, that may not... They may seem on one sense trivial, but they matter to ordinary people. Ordinary people can understand them, and President Trump understands ordinary people pretty well. That's how he got elected twice. [chuckles] So he is, he is, he's, he's, he's, he, he may well be the most brilliant politician we've had since Ronald Reagan. And so he is... When, when he is focusing on issues that on CNN you'll hear being dismissed, you know, why is he wasting his time on these trivial matters when the price of gas is going up? Um, it's, uh, I think because he's focusing on domestic politics, and those are issues that we call these the low propensity voters sometime, which is a kind of a, kind of, I think, a dismissive way to talk about people. Um, I think President Trump sees them as key voters. [chuckles] And, and he is thinking, "Well, they care about this, so he's gonna care about this." And that is what I mean when I say the White House has been very focused on, uh, domestic politics. Um, and I'm not, um, uh, I'm not trying to tell you I, I, I agree that should be the priority, the ballroom over the, uh, price of gas. What I am trying to tell you though is that that's what I... one of the issues I see with President Trump, is that I think he, he, he certainly believes himself that he knows his base better than anybody else.

17. 1:35:46 – 1:42:08

    What Role Does Trump Play in America’s Civil Unrest?

    1. CWChris Williamson1:35:46

       Mm.

    2. RPRobert Pape1:35:46

       And one of the things that means is what they care about, and I think you see they care about whether they call something the Lake of America, whether they call it the Gulf of America, um, and he, uh, has, has really, um, been an incredible politician. I mean, I, I, I would not dis- I mean, as literally to get votes, I think President Trump is maybe the best we've seen since Ronald Reagan.

    3. CWChris Williamson1:36:12

       How much of the civil unrest and the changes that you're looking at here are downstream from the Trump era because it seems to me that the inflection point starts around about the time that he was introduced to politics.

    4. RPRobert Pape1:36:26

       Yeah.

    5. CWChris Williamson1:36:27

       I know that you've got your underlying, uh, changing demographics and wealth inequality that he-- maybe he contributed, maybe he didn't. That would've probably been largely outside of what was going on with regards to Trump. But maybe to do with the rhetoric, to do with the fear of am I going to be able to get access to be able to reverse decisions that the other side had? It's no longer a game of tennis. It's a game of tennis where one other side might take the ball and run away with it, which means that I can't play anymore. How much of what you're talking about with civil unrest could just be an effect of Trump?

    6. RPRobert Pape1:36:57

       So, so-

    7. CWChris Williamson1:36:58

       And given that, how much could potentially chill out come 2028?

    8. RPRobert Pape1:37:04

       So if I had to put, uh, numbers on it, um, I would say 50% of this is due to the social changes I laid out. 25% is due to President Trump, and 25% is due to social media and other factors that I would just lump in another group of things.

    9. CWChris Williamson1:37:23

       Mm-hmm.

    10. RPRobert Pape1:37:24

        So, um, which is probably the exact reverse of what most people want to hear [laughs] because if you are anti-Trump or pro-Trump, you would like to focus on Trump. You see what I mean? So it doesn't really matter whether you're anti or pro. We see this in our focus groups. People love, uh, to either love Trump or hate Trump. [laughs] Um, and so they, they like to over-- they like to exaggerate, I believe, Trump's influence. Um, other people though focus on things like social media a lot of times because they have kids, and we saw this in our focus groups as well. Uh, they have kids and they're worried about-- It's not so much they think about their own consumption of social media. They worry about their kids. Uh, so they, I think, put a little bit too much weight on, on that. What I think is missing here for most people is the powerful influence of social changes in driving political violence.

    11. CWChris Williamson1:38:17

        Mm-hmm.

    12. RPRobert Pape1:38:17

        And, uh, why is that so important to me? It's because if you wanna know why has Lebanon had civil wars for decades and decades, this is rooted in social changes. This isn't because of a certain leader of Hezbollah or not because they've been killed so often [laughs] they don't have that much stability of the leaders of Hezbollah. Um, it's, it's, it's, it's not because of the, uh... It's because of the deep demographic problems. Um, what are some of the big issues going on inside of Israel? Deep demographic problems even among Israelis, religious and secular Israeli. So, so when you look at the tensions in societies, Chris, and I studied those for decades 'cause keep in mind I've, I've only been focusing on American political violence for five years. But for 30 years focusing on political violence around the world, social changes [laughs] are crucial to understand political violence. Um, and so this is, um, uh, what I think is missing in our discussion of this in our country. We're focusing on a lot of what I would say is the symptoms or the secondary factors.

    13. CWChris Williamson1:39:32

        Right.

    14. RPRobert Pape1:39:32

        I had big debates with certain, uh, media editorial boards in 2000, uh, and 22. I don't wanna again name names 'cause I don't want to embarrass people. But they were trying to come to grips with this work 'cause remember I'm saying the media, and this includes the most famous media, are getting the profile wrong of the Jan Sixers, for example. And I'm showing them 40-page slide decks that this is all wrong. They're missing it by maybe not 180 degrees, but by 150 degrees anyway. And, um, so I'm getting in these big discussions on exactly this issue, Chris, and these are people that were not very pro-Trump. So they would say, "Well, Professor Pape, these social changes you're talking about, they're not gonna matter 'cause we're gonna deplatform Trump. We're deplatforming Tucker Carlson, and you're gonna see, Professor Pape, that you're wrong about the priorities." Well, those very same media organizations [laughs] came back, and they've been publishing a lot of my work. And, um, and it's because we did deplatform Trump, we did deplatform Tucker Carlson, and guess what happened, Chris? We did not actually diminish any of those fires or any of those impacts, and I believe a lot is because they are reflecting these social changes and the anger on their side with the social changes. Um, and, uh, when I, when I watch Democratic politicians, Mamdani, for example, he's reflecting the other side. So I am seeing as new politicians come up... So who has had the meteoric rise on the left where, uh, before he won re-election to a major office, we had never heard of his name before? Mamdani. Almost-- It's almost the Democratic Trump, right?

    15. CWChris Williamson1:41:21

        Mm-hmm.

    16. RPRobert Pape1:41:21

        Trump comes down the golden escalator. Yes, we had vague-- knew he was on The Apprentice, but who really paid attention? Suddenly, he comes down and he does-- Trump doesn't just come down and get in the mix. He becomes, within a short period of time, the leader. Mamdani, almost exactly the same. What are the key issues they're running on? The key social change issues I'm talking about right here.

    17. CWChris Williamson1:41:45

        Right.

    18. RPRobert Pape1:41:45

        These are their core issues, Chris, and these are the core issues that are not just like polarization and we disagree a little bit on tax rates. Oh my goodness, this is existential politics, much bigger than that, and that is what's happening to our country. It's what's breaking our country apart. It's what's driving the...

18. 1:42:08 – 1:43:31

    Where to Find Robert

    1. RPRobert Pape1:42:08

       These social changes are what's driving the era of violent populism, and we literally see it happening at, right in front of our eyes with the newcomers who are suddenly meteoric household names when nine months before they run for office we had no idea. We couldn't have picked them out of a whole bushel full of, uh, of, of apples. We just never could've done it.

    2. CWChris Williamson1:42:34

       Bob, I appreciate you very much. This is awesome. Congratulations on the book. Where should people go to check out everything you got going on?

    3. RPRobert Pape1:42:40

       Um, come to, uh, my new YouTube channel, um, Pape on the Politics of Force, that I started since the last time I was here literally two weeks ago. Uh, and my Substack, especially The Escalation Trap, because I'm gonna be talking about the domestic escalation trap. And I do hope people will go to Amazon and, uh, uh, get a copy of this book, uh, because there's so much in here we haven't had a chance to talk about, Chris. And I just so appreciate you spending the time with me. Thank you so much.

    4. CWChris Williamson1:43:08

       I appreciate you too. All right, until next time. Goodbye, my beauties. See ya. Dude. A quick note, lots of people tell us that YouTube unsubscribes them from the channel even though they already pressed it. So just check down there and see if the subscribe button is pressed. You get access to episodes before anybody else. If you do, supports me and the show, helps me to bring you bigger and better guests, uh, and it makes me very happy. So just go and give it a tap for me. I thank you. [blows kiss]

Episode duration: 1:43:31