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Peter Attia MDPeter Attia MD

#99 – Peter Hotez, M.D., Ph.D.: Continuing the conversation on COVID-19

Sign up to receive Peter's email newsletter: https://bit.ly/4c602k2 In this episode, Dr. Peter Hotez M.D., Ph.D., Dean for the National School of Tropical Medicine Baylor College of Medicine, returns to continue the conversation on COVID-19. Dr. Hotez informs us on how we can gauge the number of infected people, behaviors to reduce the probability of becoming infected, and the inconsistency of hospitalizations among young adults between different countries. Dr. Hotez underscores the continued uncertainty in many virus-related developments, but ends with some points of optimism. Disclaimer: This is information accurate as of March 19, 2020, when it was recorded. We discuss: -How to gauge true number of infected people [5:45] -Reducing the probability of getting infected [22:45] -Inconsistency by country in infected young people [27:15] -Conferred immunity, seasonality, and repurposed therapeutics [30:30] -Vaccine development [39:30] -Practical behaviors to reduce risk of transmission [46:00] -Mental Health resource and funding [51:00] -Points of optimism [56:00]; and -More. Show notes page: https://peterattiamd.com/peterhotez2/ -------- About: The Peter Attia Drive is a weekly, ultra-deep-dive podcast focusing on maximizing health, longevity, critical thinking…and a few other things. With over 30 million episodes downloaded, it features topics including fasting, ketosis, Alzheimer’s disease, cancer, mental health, and much more. Peter is a physician focusing on the applied science of longevity. His practice deals extensively with nutritional interventions, exercise physiology, sleep physiology, emotional and mental health, and pharmacology to increase lifespan (delay the onset of chronic disease), while simultaneously improving healthspan (quality of life). Learn more: https://peterattiamd.com Subscribe to receive exclusive subscriber-only content: https://peterattiamd.com/subscribe Sign up to receive Peter's email newsletter: https://peterattiamd.com/newsletter Connect with Peter on: Facebook: http://bit.ly/PeterAttiaMDFB Twitter: http://bit.ly/PeterAttiaMDTW Instagram: http://bit.ly/PeterAttiaMDIG Subscribe to The Drive: Apple Podcast: http://bit.ly/TheDriveApplePodcasts Overcast: http://bit.ly/TheDriveOvercast Spotify: http://bit.ly/TheDriveSpotify Google Podcasts: http://bit.ly/TheDriveGoogle

Peter AttiahostDr. Peter Hotezguest
Mar 21, 20201h 6mWatch on YouTube ↗

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At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

Hotez on March 2020 COVID-19: Health Worker Strain, Therapies, Vaccines, Mental Health

  1. Hotez warns that the US is rapidly approaching overwhelmed health systems, with healthcare workers getting sick and feeling unprotected, and he fears a 'lights out' scenario if they fall ill in large numbers.
  2. The two discuss how confirmed case counts understate true infections, and Hotez says to watch regional hot spots like New York and Washington grow and coalesce rather than national averages.
  3. Hotez describes possible interventions including convalescent antibody prophylaxis for frontline workers, repurposed drugs such as hydroxychloroquine, and a realistic vaccine timeline far longer than 18 months.
  4. They examine the surprising number of younger adults hospitalized in the US and Europe, with speculation about smoking, vaping, genetics and heart injury but no clear answers.
  5. The conversation ends on mental health concerns from prolonged isolation and on optimism about science communication, esteem for scientists and clinicians, and strong leadership from Governor Cuomo.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

Healthcare workers are the most critical vulnerability

Hotez says the first breakdown is already occurring as exhausted doctors and nurses feel abandoned and see young colleagues getting sick; he argues that protecting them should be a national priority, possibly with a White House task force.

National averages mislead; local hot spots matter

Hotez says the US is large, so the key is to watch nodes like New York and Washington grow and whether they coalesce, with a New York-like situation likely to pop up elsewhere in coming weeks or months.

Antibody prophylaxis could protect frontline workers

Hotez describes giving a small dose (about 5 ml) of antibodies from recovered patients to protect healthcare providers and first responders for roughly two weeks, and notes that an informal network of academic blood banks had not yet been contacted by the federal government.

A vaccine will likely take much longer than 18 months

Hotez says he is downplaying expectations of a rapidly deployable vaccine, since the first candidate in trials uses a technology never licensed, and he hopes pandemic planning does not depend on one.

Younger adults are getting seriously ill

Hotez cites that about half of US hospitalized patients are under 54 and roughly a third are 20 to 44, and he stresses that even non-fatal ICU stays burden the system, while Attia adds concern about long-term effects seen in SARS-CoV-1 survivors.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

They don't want to hear dumbed down crap. They want to hear real things, and want to understand the nuance and know that certain things are complicated and that we don't have all the answers.

— Dr. Peter Hotez

Why go in that direction when we already know Mother Nature is one of the best bioweapons producer there is?

— Dr. Peter Hotez

They tear through hospitals, causing a lot of death and destruction to hospital personnel. This is what they do.

— Dr. Peter Hotez

I'm almost as worried about the mental health status of millions of Americans or people all over the world as I am the actual virus.

— Dr. Peter Hotez

I hope they make us look bad by saying we over-responded than we under-responded.

— Peter Attia

Healthcare worker protection and strainCase undercounting and regional outbreaksTesting misstepsConvalescent antibody prophylaxisRepurposed drugs and vaccine timelineYounger patients and severe illnessMental health and isolation

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