WW3 Threat Assessment: World War III Has Quietly Started!

I believe that we are already at the early stages, if not in World War III.

It just doesn't look like the wars of the past.

And people should understand what is at stake, which is we are one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away-

Or even one AI-generated viral video.

... from nuclear annihilation.

Is there anything at all you're doing to prepare?

I'm leaving the United States by 2026.

But is there anywhere on this map that is safe at all?

So, my understanding is that there's actually three safe zones.

You are right. Uh-

There's Hawaii-

Nope. Because there's so many targets in Hawaii, and same with all of Europe. But there's one tiny little place right there.

So, where do we find ourself in terms of conflict and warfare now?

It's getting worse. And-

In the past, it was whoever had the strongest military. Now, you can destabilize a government or a society using a server farm and 20 people sitting in a room thousands of miles away.

And another real problem we have right now is that the different political parties inside the United States are so intent on taking down the other side, they do it at the national security peril.

So now, Russia or China can play people off against one another and cause division.

Andrew, what do you think happens next?

Well, I think World War III is gonna be shaped by what we call proxy war, where a wealthy nation state funds, trains, and arms conflict in a less wealthy state to decrease the capability of your primary target.

So, they're using that nation to do the work for them?

Exactly right. That's already happening.

And what's the probability of nuclear war?

So, here's a terrifying detail that the public does not know. So...

Wow.

Listen, to my regular listeners, I know you don't like it when I ask you to subscribe at the start of these conversations. I don't like saying it, I don't like it being in there. None of us like it. It's frustrating. Do you know what's also frustrating? It's also frustrating when I go into the backend of a YouTube channel and I see that 56% of you that listen frequently to this podcast haven't yet subscribed, and so many of you don't even know that you haven't subscribed, because I see in the comments section, you say to me, you go, "I didn't even realize I didn't subscribe." And that actually fuels the show. It's basically like you're making a donation to the show. So, that's why I ask all the time, because it enables us to build and build and build and build, and we're going for the long term here. So, all I'd ask you is if you've seen this show before and you like it, help me, help my team here, hit the subscribe button, and we'll continue to build this show for you. That's my promise. Thank you to all of you guys that do subscribe. It means the world to me. Let's get on with the show. I invited you all here today because I intuitively feel like the world is changing before our eyes, and I think so many of us, if we're on social media or reading newspapers, can feel a sort of tension growing in society that is hard to understand if you're not an expert or you're not connected to these subjects in some way. I looked at some stats before this conversation that kind of support this feeling that I've intuitively had, and it shows that conflict zones across the world have increased by 66% in the last three years. In December 2024, the American think tank Atlantic Council asked about 400 global strategists about their thoughts about what's going on in the world, and 65% think that China will evade, invade Taiwan by force within 10 years. About 40% think there'll be a world war in the next 10 years. About 50% think nuclear weapons will be used in the next 10 years. And about 45% think Russia and NATO will fight directly. When we look at sort of spending and what's happening there, there's been a huge jump in military spending. There's now 300,000 NATO troops around the world that are on 30-day high-alert readiness. 59 states, um, have erupted in war since 2023, which is the greatest number logged in any year since 1946. And world military spending is up by about 10% year over year, which is the highest sum ever recorded by SIPR, making it a full decade of uninterrupted growth in military spending. Things feel tense, and every time I turn on the news, I have a mild sense of anxiety. So, I've gathered you three here today to help me as a muggle, as a normal person that doesn't have an understanding, parse through what's going on, and hopefully what we can do about this. Benjamin, to start with you, introductions. What's your context and what's the perspective/experience you bring to this conversation?