Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history

ℹ️ EPISODE INFO

Released

June 4, 2024

Duration

4h 32m

Channel

Dwarkesh Podcast

Watch on YouTube

▶ Open ↗

📝 EPISODE DESCRIPTION

Chatted with my friend Leopold Aschenbrenner about the trillion dollar cluster, unhobblings + scaling = 2027 AGI, CCP espionage at AI labs, leaving OpenAI and starting an AGI investment firm, dangers of outsourcing clusters to the Middle East, & The Project. Read the new essay series from Leopold this episode is based on here: https://situational-awareness.ai/ 𝐄𝐏𝐈𝐒𝐎𝐃𝐄 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐊𝐒

• Transcript: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/leopold-aschenbrenner
• Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/leopold-aschenbrenner-china-us-super-intelligence-race/id1516093381?i=1000657821539
• Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5NQFPblNw8ewxKolIDpiYN?si=6NaTHAugT2SxZrspW3lziw
• Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp
• Follow Leopold on Twitter: https://x.com/leopoldasch

𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒 00:00:00 The trillion-dollar cluster and unhobbling 00:21:20 AI 2028: The return of history 00:41:15 Espionage & American AI superiority 01:09:09 Geopolitical implications of AI 01:32:12 State-led vs. private-led AI 02:13:12 Becoming Valedictorian of Columbia at 19 02:31:24 What happened at OpenAI 02:46:00 Intelligence explosion 03:26:47 Alignment 03:42:15 On Germany, and understanding foreign perspectives 03:57:53 Dwarkesh's immigration story and path to the podcast 04:03:16 Random questions 04:08:47 Launching an AGI hedge fund 04:20:03 Lessons from WWII 04:29:57 Coda: Frederick the Great

🎤 SPEAKERS

• Leopold Aschenbrenner

  guest

• Dwarkesh Patel

  host

• Narrator

  other

🧾 EPISODE SUMMARY

In this episode of Dwarkesh Podcast, featuring Leopold Aschenbrenner and Dwarkesh Patel, Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history explores leopold Aschenbrenner forecasts 2027 AGI and geopolitical superintelligence struggle Leopold Aschenbrenner argues that AI progress is following a predictable compute-and-algorithm scaling curve that plausibly leads to AGI around 2027–2028, driven by trillion‑dollar, multi‑gigawatt data centers. He believes that once AIs can fully automate top AI researchers, an “intelligence explosion” will rapidly yield superintelligence, compressing decades of technological progress into a few years. This, in turn, makes AI decisive for national power, pushing the U.S. and China into a high‑stakes race involving espionage, industrial mobilization, and potentially government‑run “AGI projects.” He also recounts internal tensions at OpenAI around safety, security, and governance, and explains why he’s launching an investment firm focused on AGI-era situational awareness.

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