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Machiavelli is the most misunderstood thinker of all time – Ada Palmer

Had Ada Palmer back on – this time to talk about Machiavelli, perhaps the most misunderstood thinker of all time. Machiavelli cut his teeth as a high-level diplomat for Florence, a position from which he got to closely observe the most important rulers in Europe at the time, including the ones who were on the path to destroying his dearly beloved Florence. In 1513 the Medici retook control of Florence and, wrongly suspecting Machiavelli of participating in a coup attempt, fired, tortured, and exiled him. Machiavelli could have fled his exile and worked for any number of different principalities that would have been eager to make use of his talents. Instead, he decided to rot in the countryside and compile his career’s lessons about power, politics, and human nature into a book he dedicated to the very man whose new regime had tortured and exiled him, Lorenzo di Piero de’ Medici. But at least the Medici were in a position to use his insights to defend Florence. Machiavelli the patriot did not want any other hands to touch this book, because those hands, armed with these lessons, might pose an existential danger to Florence. The closest modern analogy, at least as Machiavelli would have seen it, would be Szilard’s letter warning FDR about the possibility of a nuclear fission bomb. What were those insights? And how were they inspired by Machiavelli’s dangerous diplomatic missions all across Europe, and his extensive reading of antiquity? Watch this episode with Ada Palmer to find out! By the way, Ada is launching a new podcast which I’m very excited about. The first season will be about Machiavelli – a perfect way to dive deeper into the topics we discussed in this episode. Subscribe at Beforecast’s website to be notified of the first episode: https://beforecast-seven.vercel.app/ Subscribe on YouTube: @Beforecast Follow her on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/adapalmer Check out her FixTheNews Podcast episode: https://savingtheworldpod.transistor.fm/ And if you want even more Ada check out her books and more: https://www.adapalmer.com/ 𝐄𝐏𝐈𝐒𝐎𝐃𝐄 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐊𝐒 * Transcript: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ada-palmer-2 * Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ada-palmer-machiavelli-is-the-most-misunderstood/id1516093381?i=1000772996754 * Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1Wx4gaPNEuauMODv8W2XTA?si=Bzfl_SSvSXCr4Xh4u2Q6lg 𝐒𝐏𝐎𝐍𝐒𝐎𝐑𝐒 * Cursor recently saved one of my podcast recordings. When a video file from a shoot came out corrupted, I pointed Cursor at it: it recovered the footage on its own, tracking down the right reference file from the file’s metadata and realigning the out-of-sync audio. My whole team now uses Cursor for everyday tasks, not just coding. Get started at https://cursor.com/dwarkesh * Jane Street’s hiring process has been going viral on Twitter lately. The memes are pretty funny, but I wanted to see what their interviews were actually like. So I had Ricson, one of Jane Street’s ML researchers, walk me through a retired puzzle: he gave me an image dataset where 50% of the files had been corrupted – I had to figure out how to recover them. If you’re interested in these sorts of puzzles, you can find Jane Street’s open roles at https://janestreet.com/dwarkesh * Crusoe is turning the AI datacenter buildout into an industrial process. At their massive Colorado factory, they assemble Spark units, modular datacenters with power, cooling, and fire suppression built in. They also manufacture specific components in-house to skip the longest lead times. Crusoe has experience running these Spark units on a range of energy sources, including solar and used EV batteries, ensuring they don’t get bottlenecked by grid availability. Learn more at https://crusoe.ai/dwarkesh To sponsor a future episode, visit https://dwarkesh.com/advertise. 𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒 00:00:00 – How Florence bargained with Cesare Borgia for survival 00:15:08 – Machiavelli’s analytical innovations 00:23:58 – Why popes became warlords 00:36:13 – Why the common people demanded nepotism 00:47:57 – Cesare Borgia brought terror to rulers and justice to the people 00:57:55 – Art as a proxy for war 01:06:41 – Florence, a city famous in hell 01:15:57 – The Prince was a job application to Machiavelli’s torturers 01:41:39 – During the Renaissance, original ideas had to be couched in antiquity 01:50:44 – Why copyright began with the Inquisition 02:02:12 – Machiavelli wasn't Machiavellian

Dwarkesh PatelhostAda Palmerguest
Jun 16, 20262h 8mWatch on YouTube ↗

At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

Ada Palmer reframes Machiavelli through Renaissance instability, patronage, and politics

  1. Machiavelli wrote The Prince amid cascading regime changes across Italian city-states and an unusually destabilizing papacy whose non-hereditary succession encouraged abrupt policy reversals and power grabs.
  2. Ada Palmer argues Machiavelli’s most formative case study was Cesare Borgia, whose charismatic terror, calculated betrayals, and administrative moves (including fairer justice) revealed how fear, legitimacy, and fortune interact in state-building.
  3. The discussion reframes “Machiavellian” as a historical misunderstanding, emphasizing Machiavelli’s patriotism and the fact that The Prince functioned as a private job application to the Medici regime that had tortured and exiled him.
  4. Renaissance governance is portrayed as resting on patronage/nepotism as social glue—from armies and courts to criminal justice—making “neutral” state institutions rare and helping explain why authoritarian conquerors could sometimes be popular.
  5. The episode links early print culture to censorship and copyright, arguing that the Inquisition’s licensing regime unintentionally incubated proto-copyright while also shaping what political works could circulate and when Machiavelli later surged in influence.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

Machiavelli’s urgency comes from systemic instability, not abstract cynicism.

Palmer frames Italy as a region where legitimacy threads were repeatedly cut by coups and foreign pressures, producing rapid-fire regime turnover; The Prince addresses how any regime could survive in that churn.

The papacy uniquely destabilized Italy because it was a strong, non-hereditary monarchy.

Popes expanded executive and military norms and could reshuffle rulers across the Papal States, while elections tended to empower coalitions opposed to the prior pope—creating predictable “whiplash” every decade.

Cesare Borgia is central because Machiavelli observed him up close, not secondhand.

Palmer highlights Machiavelli’s first-person break (“he told me”) and his proximity to events like Senigallia, making Borgia a lived laboratory for statecraft rather than a rhetorical example.

For Machiavelli, the ‘means’ matter because they determine durability and constraints.

The episode stresses Machiavelli’s conditional logic: deception or betrayal can work or backfire depending on how your power base is structured (e.g., Savonarola’s fragile legitimacy vs Borgia’s cultivated fear).

‘Fortune’ limits moralizing from outcomes; you judge actions by probable results ex ante.

Borgia’s collapse is presented as contingency (shared illness, papal succession timing), supporting Machiavelli’s view that even optimal strategy only controls about half the causal story.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

In Machiavelli's lifetime, that thread of continuity is cut for the majority of cities in Italy, and that guarantees from his perspective that there's gonna be more and more and more and more overthrows in those governments.

Ada Palmer

Machiavelli's job dealing with Cesare Borgia is it's very clear that the Borgia plan is to conquer the papal states in the middle of Italy... And that's Machiavelli's job, is to stand next to the scariest man who has lived in Europe since Frederick Barbarossa and whisper constantly at his ear, "The Florentine Republic will support you and will give your grace anything you ask. Just eat us last."

Ada Palmer

Your Holiness, the people demand more nepotism.

Ada Palmer

If you live in a state of, uh, where there is an arbitrary power who can have you put to death, you are a slave.

Ada Palmer

Machiavelli fundamentally is possibly th- one of the most patriotic patriots in Earth's history. Uh, and he will faithfully sit in the countryside and rot while begging to work for the people who ordered his torture, so long as they will recall him so that he can serve his country.

Ada Palmer

Italian city-state instability and legitimacy breaksPapacy as temporal power and electoral volatilityCesare Borgia as Machiavelli’s key empirical modelFear vs love, betrayal, and political “means”Fortune vs skill (virtù) in outcomesPatronage, nepotism, and pre-Enlightenment justicePrinting press, censorship, and origins of copyrightMachiavelli’s exile and The Prince as job applicationRenaissance “originality” hidden in commentaries on ancientsLater reception: Hobbes, Enlightenment, and 19th-century nationalism

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